Bush's support isn't from upper class people alone. He has quite a lot of support from all classes. The breakdown between parties isn't so much based on class as it is on Race and gender. Bush carries the White vote by well over 60%, gets ~40% of the Hispanic vote and somewhere around 10% of the black vote (These numbers taken from the 2000 Exit Polls and current polls). Democrats pick up the the remainder of each group.
The middle class don't favor Kerry or Bush exclusively (see above para), but in the South they've been favoring Bush. Along I-4 in Florida Bush has been leading by over 7% and it's said that so lonh as a Republican leads in this area by more than 4%, he has the state.
Anyway, Bush is going to win by a surprisingly large amount in the electoral college. He should have a near majority or be a little over 50% in the Popular vote too. I don't see Kerry being able to pull this election off in the next few days, Kerry's base just isn't motivated by Kerry if you know what I mean.
That is a handy site, check it occasionally myself. Problem is that the guy who runs the site shifts states based on any poll results, which leads to a very volatile and inaccurate map overall (Zogby is a horrid State Poller as are many universities and some others.) And yeah, he does have a bit of an anti-Bush bias. His articles make this pretty clear and if there's more than one poll on a state he'll usually pick the one that is more favorable to Kerry (seen it happen a few times, not sure if it's luck of the draw or him.)
This site is probably the best for poll coverage IMO:
http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php
Run by an Independant guy in Massachusetts, a Swedish Democrat and an Albertan Libertarian. Nice mix, leads to good results
Their forums are good too for analysis too, once you get passed the spin by the users on either side.
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