That doesn't matter: PPACA penalties get higher in real terms as you make more money, so higher-income families have more PPACA penalty to capture. That means the average price increase directly due to the PPACA penalty will be much higher than the actual tax penalty itself for most Americans. (Also, they aren't that small. Not really. Keep in mind, the average US household makes $51,939, so assuming they have a couple of kids they're looking at a $2,085 maximum penalty. That's 4% of their before-tax income! The penalty decreases as a percentage of your income until it is $12,240 at about a half mil income - or just 2.4%. Oh look, another neoliberal regressive tax. Take a drink.)
Actually I won't bull**** you, I did the analysis and I know what the profit-maximizing PPACA penalty price-in is. I did the analysis myself because I am a super fun guy who does super fun things with his free time.
Based on the 2016 PPACA penalty, the US income distribution and average household sizes at different income levels, private insurance rates by income, assuming all income levels incur the same costs for the insurer, and assuming nobody buys insurance if the price goes above the PPACA penalty, I estimate that the profit-maximizing individual plan premium increase due to the PPACA penalty is around $814 per household member. That means you can expect a 33% minimum premium increase solely due to the PPACA tax penalty, and corresponding increases as the penalty increases and people get "used to" the new prices. The expected price increase exceeds the PPACA penalty for families making $60,000 to $120,000.
Of course, this 33% increase is only my best effort at a ball-park figure with the data I have available. I suspect the reality is much worse, for the reasons I suggested above. Price floors, ceilings, subsidies, and penalties all suck.
Edit: Based on this analysis, I've created a table that shows the average extra amount that households will pay due to the PPACA tax penalty, broken down by income. Enjoy!
[TABLE]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]
Income of Household
[/B][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]
Insured Households
[/B][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]
Effective Penalty
[/B][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]
Price Increase
[/B][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]
Total Revenue Increase (Millions)
[/B][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
0
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
1407.868
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$1,659.31
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$1,554.74
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,188.87
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
$5,000.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
1330.56
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$1,546.38
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$1,448.92
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$1,927.87
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
$10,000.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
2083.928
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$1,485.56
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$1,391.94
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,900.70
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
$15,000.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
2087.932
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$1,650.63
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$1,546.60
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$3,229.20
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
$20,000.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
2114.42
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$1,798.31
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$1,684.98
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$3,562.76
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
$25,000.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
3385.116
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$1,902.56
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$1,782.66
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$6,034.51
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
$30,000.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
3315.424
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$1,972.06
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$1,847.78
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$6,126.17
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
$35,000.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
3115.924
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,006.81
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$1,880.34
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$5,859.00
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
$40,000.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
2888.76
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,085.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$1,953.60
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$5,643.48
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
$45,000.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
2691.92
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,085.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,051.28
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$5,521.88
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
$50,000.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
3579.136
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,085.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,067.56
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$7,400.08
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
$55,000.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
2970.88
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,085.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,083.84
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$6,190.84
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
$60,000.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
3151.808
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,085.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,148.96
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$0.00
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
$65,000.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
2611.136
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,085.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,173.38
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$0.00
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
$70,000.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
2630.848
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,085.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,222.22
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$0.00
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
$75,000.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
2776.748
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,085.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,271.06
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$0.00
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
$80,000.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
2504.174
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,085.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,271.06
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$0.00
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
$85,000.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
2191.75
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,085.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,360.60
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$0.00
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
$90,000.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
2124.005
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,085.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,409.44
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$0.00
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
$95,000.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
1864.183
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,085.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,417.58
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$0.00
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
$100,000.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
2341.446
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,085.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,450.14
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$0.00
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
$105,000.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
1809.18
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,179.68
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,450.14
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$0.00
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
$110,000.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
1679.828
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,301.73
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,539.68
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$0.00
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
$115,000.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
1418.502
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,428.33
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,555.96
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$0.00
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
$120,000.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
1628.262
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,553.18
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,515.26
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$4,095.50
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
$125,000.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
1269.048
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,679.15
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,539.68
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$3,222.98
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
$130,000.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
1321.488
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,796.58
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,588.52
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$3,420.70
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
$135,000.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
1065.406
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,932.10
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,531.54
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,697.12
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
$140,000.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
1127.46
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$3,054.98
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,466.42
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,780.79
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
$145,000.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
894.976
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$3,178.25
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,531.54
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,265.67
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
$150,000.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
1001.604
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$3,298.50
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,539.68
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,543.75
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
$155,000.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
741.152
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$3,429.43
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,564.10
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$1,900.39
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
$160,000.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
764.75
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$3,550.48
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,547.82
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$1,948.45
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
$165,000.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
686.964
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$3,677.53
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,572.24
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$1,767.04
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
$170,000.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
626.658
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$3,804.23
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,612.94
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$1,637.42
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
$175,000.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
530.518
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$3,929.68
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,669.92
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$1,416.44
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
$180,000.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
541.006
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$4,051.38
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,596.66
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$1,404.81
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
$185,000.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
485.944
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$4,182.48
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,604.80
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$1,265.79
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
$190,000.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
423.89
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$4,306.03
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,678.06
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$1,135.20
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
$195,000.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
381.064
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$4,430.28
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,661.78
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$1,014.31
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
$200,000.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
2839.626
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$5,006.68
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,637.36
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$7,489.12
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]
$250,000.00
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
3283.618
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$8,048.16
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$2,637.36
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
$8,660.08
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Per Person Inc.[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]$814.00[/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"]Total Revenue Inc. (millions)[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]$107,250.90[/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[TD="align: left"][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The main reason I've heard is Dodd-Frank. However, obviously that's gonna become a problem if companies keep choosing to exit markets instead of spinning off as Dodd-Frank intended.
indeed