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ForumsDiscussion Forum → Imminent pandemic...
Imminent pandemic...
2004-01-21, 12:50 AM #1
Quote:
<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Alberta braces for flu pandemic
Stockpiling of antiviral drugs urged

Scott Crowson and Sharon Kirkey
Calgary Herald; CanWest News Service


Tuesday, January 20, 2004

Dr. Arlene King


Canada must start stockpiling anti-flu drugs now to prepare for an "imminent" flu pandemic, experts are warning.

Their call for action comes as a strain of avian influenza is proving 100 per cent fatal to its human victims in Vietnam.

"Albertans should be concerned," Health Minister Gary Mar said Monday. "We know a pandemic influenza will come. We don't know exactly when, but we know it will come eventually."

Last week, Klaus Stohr, project leader of the World Health Organization's global influenza program, said the killer flu strain in Vietnam has the makings of a pandemic that could quickly spiral out of control.

The Spanish flu of 1918-19 killed up to 40 million people worldwide. Although pandemics are unpredictable, there are an average of three per century. The last one was in 1968-69.

Mar said Alberta plans to be ready when the next one strikes.

"We continue to work with Health Canada and other provinces because we know that this is something that will be quickly spread across Canada," he said in an interview.

Provincial and federal health agencies have been working on a strategy for coping with a deadly flu outbreak. The initial details are still weeks away from being released.

The situation in Asia has caused a sense of urgency because once a pandemic flu virus has been identified, it will take up to six months to develop a vaccine. In that time, a flu strain could sweep across the globe, killing millions. As a result, some health officials are urging Canada to start preparing now by stockpiling anti-viral drugs.

Dr. Danuta Skowronski, an influenza specialist at the British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, says the next flu pandemic will make SARS "look like a cakewalk."

Quoted in today's Canadian Medical Association Journal, she said up to 50,000 Canadians could become ill in a span of just days, swamping hospitals and affecting all walks of life. Skowronski said the country must have adequate vaccine supplies.

Mar said health officials are moving in that direction.

"We're working with the federal government on ensuring there are certain stocks of various types of vaccines," he said. "But when it comes to the flu, we have no idea which strain of flu will be the pandemic. So you cannot stock that in advance."

A national Pandemic Influenza Committee, created in 2001, is putting the finishing touches on a new plan, parts of which may be ready within a month.

"It's a very comprehensive document that will guide all levels of government in terms of their actions," said Dr. Arlene King, chairwoman of the committee. "It's probably one of the most comprehensive plans in the world."

She said the committee is looking at the suggestion of stockpiling anti-virals but has not made a decision.

"Anti-virals are a very important part of responding to a pandemic because vaccines will not be available for at least six months into it," she told the Herald. "They are really the only line of defence in terms of both treating this pandemic strain and preventing illness in people who come in contact with other people who have it. We are looking at the issue of securing a supply of anti-virals."

Cost and availability are key issues.

"There isn't that much around," King said. "There's a little bit in Canada, but the global supply is very limited."

Vietnam is battling an outbreak of an influenza strain of avian flu known as H5N1 that has been linked to 13 deaths, most of them children. Health officials are warning that if the disease spreads from person to person, rather than by direct contact with droppings from sick poultry, the death toll could far exceed last winter's outbreak of SARS.

So far, the death rate in humans from the bird flu is 100 per cent. The last two pandemics, in 1957 and 1968, involved strains derived from birds.

"What's going on now in Asia is very disconcerting because what we're watching here is the evolution of this virus to a stage at which it could be the next pandemic," said Dr. Donald Low, chief of microbiology at Toronto's University Health Network and Mount Sinai Hospital.

He believes Canada has no choice but to begin stockpiling anti-flu drugs to protect not just the most vulnerable, such as the very young and the elderly, should a pandemic hit, but vital support workers including firefighters, police, ambulance and health-care workers.

A new class of anti-viral drugs called neuraminidase inhibitors work by targeting one of the two major surface molecules the flu viruses use to spread and infect other healthy cells. The pills can shorten the duration of a flu bout by about 11/2 days. But one drug, called Tamiflu, can potentially reduce the risk of transmission between close contacts by 80 to 90 per cent.

scrowson@theherald.canwest.com

© Copyright 2004 Calgary Herald</font>


100% fatal in humans. Wow. Discuss?

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2004-01-21, 1:12 AM #2
This is nothing new. Its always been a possibility. Odds are, eventually we'll have an epedemic similar to the one in 1918-19.

However, I dont believe we'll ever see a natrually occuring, contagious, widespread, disease that kills 100% of those who catch it. Even some of the most feared contagious diseases on the planet, like ebola, dont kill everyone who contracts them.

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2004-01-21, 3:21 AM #3
Quote:
<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Originally posted by DSettahr:
Even some of the most feared contagious diseases on the planet, like ebola, dont kill everyone who contracts them.

</font>


But they do kill massive percentages. I forget the exact numbers, but I think it's at least 95%.

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2004-01-21, 3:27 AM #4
Actually the Ebola fatality rate has only gotten as high as 90%, in one outbreak. Other outbreaks have only had fatality rates of 30-60%. There is also one strain of ebola that was found in the United States, but it doesnt affect humans.

Regardless, my point was that I dont think we have to worry about any diseases wiping out humans completely. Unless they are genetically engineered of course...

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[This message has been edited by DSettahr (edited January 21, 2004).]
2004-01-21, 4:07 AM #5
And when that happens, we will have the battle between good and evil. Anyone tell me what book that is from?

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maeve
2004-01-21, 4:14 AM #6
Quote:
<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Originally posted by DSettahr:
However, I dont believe we'll ever see a natrually occuring, contagious, widespread, disease that kills 100% of those who catch it.</font>


African Sleeping Sickness is 100% fatal if untreated. It's the only known one that is.
2004-01-21, 6:10 AM #7
Rainbow 6

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2004-01-21, 6:13 AM #8
Quote:
<font face="Verdana, Arial" size="2">Originally posted by Outlaw Torn:
And when that happens, we will have the battle between good and evil. Anyone tell me what book that is from?

</font>


The Stand by Stephen King.

Another disease that has virtually a 100% death rate is rabies (when untreated).
2004-01-21, 4:04 PM #9
If I see Mother Abigail in my dreams, I'll be running the other way screaming...

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I am a nobody, and nobody is perfect; therefore, I am perfect.

Everyday I beat my own previous record for number of consecutive days I've stayed alive.

[url="mailto:Bruintone@netscape.net"]mailto:Bruintone@netscape.net[/url]Bruintone@netscape.net</A>
Yahoo! Name : jedibruintone77
I am a nobody, and nobody is perfect; therefore, I am perfect.

Everyday I beat my own previous record for number of consecutive days I've stayed alive.

My Canada includes Beavers.
2004-01-21, 4:06 PM #10
Hrm.
2004-01-21, 4:30 PM #11
Viral and bacterial infections, yes.

However Prions are the future:
http://www.healthatoz.com/healthatoz/Atoz/ency/creutzfeldt-jakob_disease.html

100% fatality rate, usually within 8m-1y of contraction, no treatment or cure, and in something like 80% of the cases, there is no indication of how it was transmitted..

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[This message has been edited by Dormouse (edited January 21, 2004).]
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2004-01-21, 9:47 PM #12
what's scary is that the world is so connected now that an epidemic like in the 20s would spread much faster and on a wider scale.

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2004-01-21, 9:56 PM #13
Dor, it's not exactly the wave of the future, as prions aren't new, and viruses have so many forms they have yet to take.

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