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Thread: So Scotland *might* decide to withdraw from the UK

  1. #1
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    So Scotland *might* decide to withdraw from the UK

    The referendum is in two weeks time, and whilst the "No" campaign has been consistently leading polls, their lead has dropped to 6 points from 22 at the beginning of August.

    Foreigners and Engs, thoughts?

  2. #2
    As a stupid American -- what's going on now with this?
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  3. #3
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    There's a Scottish independence movement that's been going in various degrees since the 60s/70s.

    There is currently a devolved Scottish parliament which is elected via a proportional representation system designed such that there should never be a majority party in power. Regardless, the Scottish National Party have had a majority since 2011 because they won a ridiculous number of votes.

    Westminster have given the country a referendum on September the 18th on whether or not Scotland becomes independent.

    If it goes through Scotland leaves the UK in May 2016 and is self-governed by the Scottish parliament.

    [Side note: Traditionally, people in Scotland are generally more left-wing than the other three home nations, and the politics of the UK took a massive lurch to the right twenty years ago when Labour became a centre-right party under Tony Blair.]

    *Some of this is subject to opinion.

  4. #4
    Thanks for the information, fish of the bacon variety!

    I still have no real educated thought on the matter, and only hope that, whatever does happen, turns out better than its alternative.
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  5. #5
    Does Scotland have the legal right to leave the U.K.? Because here in the states, Puerto Rico often has a referendum to join the union (and I believe voted to do so a couple years ago), but I believe congress is the body with the authority to grant them statehood.

  6. #6
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    Yes, the Palace of Westminster is where the central UK government sits.

    [It's the fancy looking building with Big Ben on the end of it.]

  7. #7
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    Are the polls consistently showing a gap of 6 points or so? Asking because if it's just one poll, maybe safer to assume it's an outlier.
    If you think the waiters are rude, you should see the manager.

  8. #8
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    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/events/sco...s/poll-tracker

    They're all fairly consistent, Survation and You-Gov having the most recent polls.

  9. #9
    (Still) On 13 week vacation
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    I've never heard of this "Scotland".
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  10. #10
    So you're gonna let those Anglo-Saxons get away with it scots-free?

  11. #11
    Prefered by 80% of Doctors
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    I'm English, left-wing and live in Edinburgh. I'll be voting yes. It seems like the biggest opportunity in decades for some actual political change and shedding at least some of the toxic neoliberal policies that Labour and the Conservatives have both been pretending there's no alternative to.

    Quote Originally Posted by Baconfish View Post
    [Side note: Traditionally, people in Scotland are generally more left-wing than the other three home nations, and the politics of the UK took a massive lurch to the right twenty years ago when Labour became a centre-right party under Tony Blair.]

    *Some of this is subject to opinion.
    I'd argue Thatcher changed the dynamic the most with the massive liberalisation of the markets, the rapid privatisation of various public goods and the neglect (and even destruction) of nearly all primary and secondary industry. Basically great for London and the Tory-voting home counties and a massive f*** you to the rest of the country. Thatcherism is the reason we've become a finance industry banana republic and it's been sod all use for anyone north of the Severn-Wash line.

  12. #12
    Good, I've been waiting for a Braveheart sequel.

  13. #13
    Child's Play CharityNot satisfied.
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    I don't think Scotland will leave. I think they're going to end up losing a little too much by doing so.

    But that's my opinion as a stupid southerner. But I'd rather have Scotland a part of the UK than not, I think.
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  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Recusant View Post
    I'm English, left-wing and live in Edinburgh. I'll be voting yes. It seems like the biggest opportunity in decades for some actual political change and shedding at least some of the toxic neoliberal policies that Labour and the Conservatives have both been pretending there's no alternative to.


    I'd argue Thatcher changed the dynamic the most with the massive liberalisation of the markets, the rapid privatisation of various public goods and the neglect (and even destruction) of nearly all primary and secondary industry. Basically great for London and the Tory-voting home counties and a massive f*** you to the rest of the country. Thatcherism is the reason we've become a finance industry banana republic and it's been sod all use for anyone north of the Severn-Wash line.
    *high five*

  15. #15
    Admiral of Awesome
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    Quote Originally Posted by - Tony - View Post
    I don't think Scotland will leave. I think they're going to end up losing a little too much by doing so.
    Without the pride of social betterment or free access to rich public goods, there is little that a region or even an individual has to gain by surrendering sovereignty to a larger nation. I think the most pertinent question is: "What do you think they will lose?", and after decades of Thatcherism I'm guessing the answer will be "nothing that they'd miss, really, but it's not very nice to the rest of us".

    Neoliberalism is a rot on our culture and things like this are going to happen more and more as long as it's allowed to exist.

  16. #16
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    Basically what I'm saying is that I'm happy Scotland is asking this question of its residents, and I hope it is resolved in a manner which gives them a meaningful amount of political representation.

  17. #17
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    Latest YouGov poll is showing Yes leading for the first time ever, Survation apparently showing No still leading by 2 points.

    Politicians in London are ****ting themselves and throwing really vague promises of not-quite-federalism at us now.
    Last edited by Baconfish; 09-07-2014 at 02:16 PM.

  18. #18
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    I eagerly await the antineoliberalist scottish paradise and I hope they are hiring software engineers.

  19. #19
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    News of the Scottish poll was bannered on newspapers in London Sunday and spurred worries among some residents. "We're all on the same island, we're all part of the same country, so I don't see why they feel the need to separate," said Brian Allsopp, a 45-year-old from north London and part of the problem. "We should all try to stick together and work through this [problem that middle-aged Londoners created]."

    Royal Dutch Shell PLC Chief Executive Ben van Beurden has expressed concern over the implications of an independent Scotland, and business leaders have said separation would bring uncertainty over tax and trade regulations. This probably means separation is a good idea.

    [Adapted from a much more insipid WSJ article.]
    Last edited by Jon`C; 09-07-2014 at 02:46 PM.

  20. #20
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    My favourite thing about people bringing up implications for oil companies is that they talk like oil companies are well known for deliberately staying away from places where they know there's oil.

  21. #21
    Admiral of Awesome
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    Well.

    An independent Scottish government might ask a foreign oil company to pay for the oil they extract, and that is harmful to the country because something something

  22. #22
    Admiral of Awesome
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    What if the oil companies just go somewhere else????? O NO

  23. #23

  24. #24
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    Reading that this morning my initial thought was why in the name of everloving **** would he used Canada for comparison?

  25. #25
    Admiral of Awesome
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    Dutch disease?

  26. #26

  27. #27
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    Sorry for the crap quality. Skip to 40 seconds, the timestamp on the url doesn't work with the tags for some reason.


  28. #28
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    Ok, eschewing all the drunken junk posts I've dealt in so far.

    A YouGov poll from three days ago is showing Yes with a two point lead for the first time in two years of debate and campaigning.
    http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/09/07/...s-out-no-lead/

    On Monday the news of a possible yes campaign lead has lead more than a 1% slump in the value of Sterling.
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...aign-poll-lead

    Similarly, many large businesses based in Scotland reported a drop in their share value, including the Royal Bank of Scotland [currently owned by the taxpayer], Lloyds bank, Standard Life [massive building society; my parents happen to be shareholders] and Babcock. Now, Babcock is of interest to me as they're based about 15 miles away in Rosyth and they're the third largest defence contractor in the UK [if I remember rightly, BAE and Rolls are larger], and I just so happen to have just finished my Master's in mech eng and I'm both job hunting and have a history of working with them in uni so it might be detrimental to me if they do decide to relocate. I know, I'm a little selfish. Babcock also happen to run the Faslane nuclear naval base on the west coast where the UK's entire nuclear arsenal is based, and the parties supporting the Yes campaign plan for complete nuclear disarmament for the country if they win
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...ence-poll-lead

    The Sun are currently claiming as of an hour ago that Lloyds plan to relocate to London in the case of a Yes vote; I won't bother linking the article as it's behind a paywall and it helps line Rupert Murdoch's pockets. Questionable effects from that happening as the bank is actually managed and run from London just now anyway, but it happens to be registered in Scotland.

    RBS are announcing their intentions following a possible Yes vote tomorrow. I'd imagine that one's tricky as they're owned by the taxpayer after the bailouts in 2008, but their headquarters are based at a massive site about 5 miles from here and they employ a shedload of people in Edinburgh.

  29. #29
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    Interestingly, for anyone that happens to follow Rupert Murdoch on twitter, he's been hinting at supporting Scottish Independence for the last week or so, and just so happens to own The Sun, with the Scottish edition being the biggest selling daily rag in the country. Murdoch also happens to have a knack for backing the winning side in any election in this country seeing how the prick practically rigs the damn things.

    https://twitter.com/rupertmurdoch

    All three main party leaders from Westminster have been up north of the border campaigning today to no great fanfare, and the latest Survation poll has come out for the period of 5th-9th of September showing No with a 6 point lead, excluding DKs.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...-no?CMP=twt_gu

    There's pro-union rallies happening in Edinburgh in the next week organised by both the Orange Order, a group of organised sectarian ****wits that we usually confine to Glasgow and UKIP, a group of organised xenophobic, homophobic, racist, misogynist ****wits with decent publicists that we usually confine to England. Last time Nigel Farage turned up in Edinburgh he was chased by a bunch of protesters and had to be given a police escort. Should be an interesting weekend.

  30. #30

  31. #31
    To be absolutely honest, the only beef I could have with Scottish independence is that it would give the Welsh some ideas.

  32. #32
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    Apparently people are actually looking at this thread so here's some more updates:

    The latest YouGov poll is showing the No campaign pulling back in front slightly as they throw everything but the kitchen sink at us.
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...es-yougov-poll

    RBS *are* planning on moving their registered office to London in the event of a Yes vote, however the bank's chief executive has confirmed that there will be no job losses or physical movement of facilities. An independent Scotland would continue to receive corporation tax from the bank apparently.
    http://www.theguardian.com/business/...tland-yes-vote
    http://www.businessforscotland.co.uk...and-votes-yes/

    David Cameron's been up trying to drum up support for the union and seems to think implied swearing appeals to the Scottish electorate.
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...ng-tories-kick

    John Lewis [the daddy of all department stores here] are claiming that they would have to raise prices in an independent Scotland. John Lewis also own Waitrose, the upmarket supermarket and they claim that their costs would rise too.
    http://www.theguardian.com/business/...d-independence

    EXCEPT WAIT, according to one of the BBC's economics editors, the PM has been having one to one chats with the bosses of all the major supermarkets in Downing Street lobbying them to claim that prices would rise if we go it alone. Tesco has already rubbished this after it was claimed in a No campaign leaflet last week, and Morrisons have stated some time ago that their prices may actually *fall*.
    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/510099132334481409
    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/510116605553278976
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...-vote-campaign

    Also in BBC news, despite being supposedly impartial, the cost of the license fee may double for us north of the border.
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...e-impartiality

    BBC Senior Political Correspondent and know die-hard Tory was at an Edinburgh press conference today. Footage was shown on the 6pm and 10pm national news of his story with him questioning Alex Salmond over the possible movement of the banks. He then claimed in a voice over that the first minister declined to answer his question despite this footage here existing of the event where Robinson gets majority of his questions answered, and then has his arse handed to him after heckling. There's been claims of BBC bias due to their interests in Scottish funding but this is getting ridiculous. Also note the rather serious implication about 4 minutes in that a minster from the Treasury has been briefing a BBC journalist with market sensitive information relating to the publicly owned Royal Bank, resulting in a dip in their share price last night. Fairly sure that's illegal.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...h-independence

    Lastly for now, Labour party MPs turned up in Glasgow today in order to help the No campaign. Some bloke followed them about all afternoon on a rickshaw blasting the Imperial March.
    Last edited by Baconfish; 09-11-2014 at 08:47 PM.

  33. #33
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    Just found that press conference from Nick Robinson's point of view.



    First time I've ever actually lodged a complaint with the BBC.

  34. #34

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    Interesting stuff leading up to Sept 18.

    Would the voter turnout be better?
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  35. #35
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    Voter registration for this thing is at 97%; the highest ever. They're expecting a voter turnout of over 80%, whereas the last general election had a turnout of about 63%.

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2...on-97-per-cent

  36. #36
    Shamelessly stolen from Reddit-

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  37. #37
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    There's actually been some idiots using that "Aye or Die" slogan the last day or two.

    Wankers.

  38. #38
    Child's Play CharitySon of Krokodile XVI
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    Mind sharing which way you're voting?

    From your posts in this thread I assume "yes" for some reason, but I'm not sure.
    Looks like we're not going down after all, so nevermind.

  39. #39
    Not only should the United Kingdom crush all this withdrawal nonsense, but they should proceed to retake every colony they have lost in the last 250 years.

    God Save the Queen.

  40. #40
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    I'm leaning Yes and it's most likely that I'll vote that way, though I obviously have reservations with certain things.

    I've been pretty burnt out on things this weekend. There was a big pro-union march led by a bunch of sectarian gob****es in Edinburgh yesterday that was reported on BBC radio stations etc. as simply being pro-union and completely skipped over the bit with the Orange Order organising it. They also failed to mention the large Yes rally in Glasgow anywhere.
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...h-9731400.html


    There was also a protest outside the BBC Scotland offices in Glasgow today by a couple of thousand people against their bias throughout the campaigns. They actually posted a small report on it for once, but they claimed there was only a crowd of 350. Luckily, STV are literally 200 feet away and did a better job for once. Personally I don't think STV could find their arse with both hands.
    http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/...ferendum-bias/

    A whole load of poll results have come in with one giving Yes an 8 point lead, others giving No up to an 8 point lead. Come Thursday whoever wins is probably only going to win by the skin of their teeth.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014...n_5816024.html

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