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Thread: The Great Stock Market Crash of 2020

  1. #41

    "Has it won yet?"

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    Another 5% down S&P this coming Monday?
    SnailIracing:n(500tpostshpereline)pants
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  2. #42

  3. #43
    Admiral of Awesome
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    $6 trillion? They'd never allow that kind of stimulus with a black man in the white house! I mean democrat!

  4. #44
    Epstein didn't kill himself.

  5. #45
    lol and the stock market had its best day since 1933 on the rumour of this stimulus.

    Investors are buying on the rumour of the most dangerous yet required financial experiment in history and are overjoyed that it created the best day since the middle of the ****ing great depression. Imagine what it's going to look like when they sell the news of whatever that finally actually looks like before the end of the week.

    Gentlemen, it has been a privilege.

    Epstein didn't kill himself.

  6. #46
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    I think the 4 biggest rallies in stock market history were during the decline of the great depression. Doesnt erase the downward trend.

  7. #47
    Admiral of Awesome
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    the deader the cat the higher the bounce

  8. #48

    "Has it won yet?"

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    BUT WHERES MY FREE MONEY???
    SnailIracing:n(500tpostshpereline)pants
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  9. #49

    "Has it won yet?"

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spook View Post
    I don't have a 144HZ monitor. I can't print maximum money.
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  10. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by ECHOMAN View Post
    BUT WHERES MY FREE MONEY???
    get in at the bottom of a dead cat bounce and sell at the top. guaranteed free money c/o the US government, timing the market never fails.

  11. #51
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    Thanks to some nerd on reddit, we have an estimate on unemployment. It's not good.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

    This is what they compiled by individually going through each state's unemployment filings. Suggests up to 6 million people are recently out of work. That doubles unemployment.

  12. #52
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    That's a fine estimate but keep in mind it wouldn't include workers who are furloughed or have otherwise lost hours, contractors that have lost jobs, "gig economy" workers, and it wouldn't include service staff who are still working but have lost tips. I'm not familiar with how unemployment insurance usually works in the US, but I would guess it also excludes most self-employed workers / owner-operators.

  13. #53
    The unemployment numbers are always cooked and they almost never talk about the category that includes the broadest range of people they even categorize and even that one most likely doesn't include all of those. Certainly not people that are still working but making less.
    "I would rather claim to be an uneducated man than be mal-educated and claim to be otherwise." - Wookie 03:16


  14. #54
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    In WA you're prohibited from filing for unemployment until you've been unemployed for a full week. I think a lot of people are just losing their jobs this week so look again next week

  15. #55
    Epstein didn't kill himself.

  16. #56

  17. #57
    Admiral of Awesome
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    This is appropriate for this thread


  18. #58
    Last edited by Spook; 04-11-2020 at 06:25 PM.
    Epstein didn't kill himself.

  19. #59
    loooool

  20. #60

  21. #61
    Okay I saw this the other day, and all I could think was, why the **** would they name or even refer to something as BioAnal Sys?
    Epstein didn't kill himself.

  22. #62
    hah, I didn't even notice that. wtf

  23. #63
    Admiral of Awesome
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reverend Jones View Post
    Went to twitter.

    Top reply: I took this photo, a RT would be nice.

    Next reply: Republicans time correlate with a bad, Democrats donít time correlate with that bad, therefore democrats are good

    Next reply: Twitter is capitalism but you use it, isnít that interesting? :smug:

  24. #64
    We really are ****ed
    Epstein didn't kill himself.

  25. #65
    Epstein didn't kill himself.

  26. #66
    It's Stuart, Martha Stuart
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jon`C View Post
    Went to twitter.

    Top reply: I took this photo, a RT would be nice.

    Next reply: Republicans time correlate with a bad, Democrats don’t time correlate with that bad, therefore democrats are good

    Next reply: Twitter is capitalism but you use it, isn’t that interesting? :smug:
    The market is trying to price stocks for where they think things will end up.

    People are losing jobs because it's illegal for them to go to work right now. The market seems to think the outlook for the future is better than the original panic would suggest.

    It's not like a really good week is particularly good news right now. It just means things are still volatile and people aren't certain of where things are going.

  27. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by Obi_Kwiet View Post
    The market is trying to price stocks for where they think things will end up.

    People are losing jobs because it's illegal for them to go to work right now. The market seems to think the outlook for the future is better than the original panic would suggest.

    It's not like a really good week is particularly good news right now. It just means things are still volatile and people aren't certain of where things are going.
    The real reason isnt because speculators think the real economy will improve, its because speculators have been expecting (and have been receiving) a bail-out. The main concern going into this is whether large companies can afford to service their stock buyback debts without goods revenue. Volumes started creeping up about a week before the news that the USG is going to buy corporate bonds as debt relief, so default isnít a risk. Now there are growing rumours that the US treasury is going to start buying equity directly, effectively perpetuating the share repurchase plans of these companies without them having to go into debt or spend their own money to do it.

    The market does not think the panic is overblown. The market thinks haha money printer go brrr.

  28. #68
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    It's still a dumb line of reasoning. Even if consumption stays at the same nominal levels, aggregate economic output is still down.

    Not hard to think through whether society would be better off if everyone still received paychecks but nobody did any work.

  29. #69
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    But yeah, the fed's actions seem more in line with juicing the stock market than in relieving the economy. Which you should be scared by. Stocks are still (yes, today) above historic norms. Do you trust all of the morons juicing a stock market way beyond what makes sense? Do you trust the CEOs destroying the long term viability of their companies to continue their "haha stocks only go up" pressure? I personally dont, and the future of america looks worse for each dollar these morons are given to cover their irresponsible behavior.
    Last edited by Reid; 04-13-2020 at 04:11 AM.

  30. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reid View Post
    But yeah, the fed's actions seem more in line with juicing the stock market than in relieving the economy.
    It doesn't just seem that way, that's literally all they're doing.

    Stock speculators don't care about value and they don't care about the actual economy. All they care about is whether there'll be a "bigger idiot" they can flip their stock to at a higher price than what they paid. Right now it looks like Donald Trump's United States Treasury wants very badly to be the world's "bigger idiot of last resort".

    So it's not even a question of whether there'll be a "bigger idiot" anymore; it's guaranteed. The only pertinent question is whether the money they print to buy your stock will be worth anything. And the fact that stocks aren't going straight to the moon when there's ****ing government guaranteed returns on the horizon should tell you what a lot of finance people think about that latter question.
    Last edited by Jon`C; 04-13-2020 at 04:46 AM.

  31. #71
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    I saw this while looking for a video for another thread

  32. #72
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    "Well that was a **** idea" - economists 10 years from now on what we're doing today

  33. #73
    It's Stuart, Martha Stuart
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jon`C View Post
    The real reason isnt because speculators think the real economy will improve, its because speculators have been expecting (and have been receiving) a bail-out. The main concern going into this is whether large companies can afford to service their stock buyback debts without goods revenue. Volumes started creeping up about a week before the news that the USG is going to buy corporate bonds as debt relief, so default isn’t a risk. Now there are growing rumours that the US treasury is going to start buying equity directly, effectively perpetuating the share repurchase plans of these companies without them having to go into debt or spend their own money to do it.

    The market does not think the panic is overblown. The market thinks haha money printer go brrr.
    The market isn't up so much as it's less down. So it's not "wow, all the corporations are going to go under and there will be mass unemployment while institutions rebuild". It's just "everything is going to take a huge hit, and taxes will have to go up, but people will mostly have jobs to go back to so we won't have to wait years while all our important economic institutions rebuild from scratch."

  34. #74
    Jobs? What jobs?
    Epstein didn't kill himself.

  35. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by Obi_Kwiet View Post
    The market isn't up so much as it's less down. So it's not "wow, all the corporations are going to go under and there will be mass unemployment while institutions rebuild". It's just "everything is going to take a huge hit, and taxes will have to go up, but people will mostly have jobs to go back to so we won't have to wait years while all our important economic institutions rebuild from scratch."
    That would be true if stocks werent already overpriced before the virus hit.

  36. #76
    youre saying we should buy gold then
    Epstein didn't kill himself.

  37. #77
    It is a hedge against inflation.
    "I would rather claim to be an uneducated man than be mal-educated and claim to be otherwise." - Wookie 03:16


  38. #78
    It's Stuart, Martha Stuart
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reid View Post
    That would be true if stocks werent already overpriced before the virus hit.
    I mean, sure, but that's just sort of riding on everything else. The market is still super volatile. Things are probably overpriced again. "A really, really good week", is just another way of saying, "The market is still screwed up".

  39. #79
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    Quote Originally Posted by Obi_Kwiet View Post
    I mean, sure, but that's just sort of riding on everything else. The market is still super volatile. Things are probably overpriced again. "A really, really good week", is just another way of saying, "The market is still screwed up".
    Yup, agree with you there. The markets are not functioning.. they really can't when the fed is doing everything it can to inflate prices.

  40. #80
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    Long, but this Chamath guy seems to be making lots of sense. Seems to advocate many of the same things we've talked about on the Discord.

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