Mort-Hog
If moral relativism is wrong, I don't wanna be right.
Posts: 4,192
Detritic is right.
Climate change occurs naturally, so the real problem here is discerning what effects are being caused by human activity and what is being caused by natural processes.
As with everything in science, there are varying degrees of uncertainty about things. But some things we know to be quite certain. Firstly, human activities are changing the composition of Earth's atmosphere. Increasing levels of carbon dioxide for the last 200 years have been well documented and there is no doubt that this is due to human acitivies.
It is also known that carbon dioxide and other gasses effectively 'warm' the planet. Human activity is strengthening the natural 'greenhouse effect'.
Now, to what degree human activity is affecting the Earth is what is uncertain. There is a natural carbon dioxide cycle. It will rise and fall naturally. The actual amount that human activity emits is very very small, compared to natural factors such as volcanoes and trees and the like. The difference is that the Earth's atmosphere as evolved with this over millions of years, and the atmosphere can handle volcanic eruptions and other natural effects, because they too have been happening for millions of years. Human activity has only really been significant over the last 200 years, and the problem is that we are bumping up the carbon dioxide levels above that of which the atmosphere is used to. Even if it's only a tiny amount, it's still tipping the balance.
What is uncertain is how much the atmosphere can take before it affects the Earth significantly.
As this is a global problem, it requires a global solution, so it's quite sensible that the UN has been at the heart of this. The UN set up the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, to investigate how much is due to human activity. The IPCC has already noted that various trends are "unlikely to be entirely natural in origin". In the most recent Third Assessment Report (2001), IPCC wrote "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.".
Many politicans take the view 'okay we don't know, let's wait until things are more certain'. The problem is that by then it's too late to do anything about it.
What doesn't help is the media leaping on this and trying to make it far more sensationalist than it actually is, suggesting that recent weather phenomena are the result of global warming. We cannot know this, there is no way that we can try and make this link, and it's this sort of nonsense that makes people doubt the effect of global warming as a whole. It is important and it is something to be worried about... but not quite as much as the media like to make out.
"The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt. " - Bertrand Russell
The Triumph of Stupidity in Mortals and Others 1931-1935