jeez, don't go all emo on us

That's not what I'm talking about at all. I was referring to all the predictions about how the American invasion in Iraq would happen. For example, lots of media predicted that it would take the Americans at least a year to take Baghdad. They were right about the aftermath though.

[QUOTE=Michael MacFarlane]They're going to do neither of these. Even if they do have a couple nuclear bombs by now, they know that anything they can do to Israel will pale in comparison to Israel's retaliation strike.[/QUOTE]

Well, no. Ahmadinejad believes in the Islamic apocalypse and the return of the 12th Imam. Unlike Soviet Russia and China, Iran is not afraid of nuclear retaliation whatsoever.

I wonder whats going on in Korea...

Well according to one of the article authors, the Korean missile tests were funded and ordered by Iran. If that is true, you do the math.

At least Iraq is out of the picture now. I suppose this war did have some good effects. I don't think Saddam would have wanted to be the last kid on the block to have WMDs.




That's going to be one heck of a reality check.


[QUOTE=Dj Yoshi]Unless Israel is...you know...taken off the face of the earth.

Then I think Israel's retaliation strike may be a bit less intense than you seem to think it will be.[/QUOTE]

Nah. Countries put their nukes in bunkers way away from anything important. Iran probably doesn't have sophisticated intelligence to know where Israel's WMDs are. Also, Israel would know that they've been launched way before they hit.

I'm of the opinion that Ahmadinejad is far more sane than you're giving him credit for. Faced with one example of a country that halted its WMD program and got invaded (Iraq) and another that continued its program and forced the U.S. into negotiations (North Korea), Iran made what from their perspective must have seemed like the most rational choice. Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons as a deterent to a U.S. invasion, not because they want to nuke Israel and get turned into a crater for their trouble. The rhetoric about Israel is just a means for manipulating the Iranian people by giving them a "common enemy."

[QUOTE=Dj Yoshi]Unless Israel is...you know...taken off the face of the earth.

Then I think Israel's retaliation strike may be a bit less intense than you seem to think it will be.[/QUOTE]

You're vastly overrating Iran's nuclear arsenal, if in fact they have one at all. They'd have to catch Israel completely off-guard and irradiate 8,500-odd square miles of land to be even remotely confident of avoiding a counterattack. There's no way they have enough bombs, or large enough bombs, to come anywhere close. And even if they did, Israel would have enough time between detection of launch and detonation to launch their own missiles.

...and you're going to just ignore the 12th Imam idea?

Well, yeah, until I see compelling evidence that it's affecting their policymaking. I have my suspicions that it's just Ahmadinejad's way of justifying the nuclear weapons program to the clerics and other extreme religious elements in Iran.

I would have prefered attack on Iran invasion already in 2003, though.

I remember Sine_Nomen or someone wise estimating that even France could defeat Iran.

Which kinda makes you realize what kind of an opponent Iran actually is