ffs I am so sick of blogs and news articles commenting on speculation. Like "speculators sold a lot so the price should go down :downs:"
Guess what? No! It won't!
I'm guessing at least a few of you don't know what speculation is, so I'll explain:
For this example we have three companies: Jon`Crude (ticker JONC), the oil company. Fishy Foodz (FSTKZ), an oil consumer. WookCorp (WOOK), another oil consumer. We also have a speculator named Happydud.
Because of the volatility of the oil business, Jon`Crude is an active participant in the futures market. The oil futures market lets companies like Fishy Foodz and WookCorp more easily predict their costs, and it lets Jon`Crude predict future profit.
What this entails is a set of contracts. Let's say the current price of oil is $230 a barrel. Fishy Foodz knows they will need 80,000 barrels of oil in 6 months, so they come to Jon`Crude. Jon`Crude sells them 100 contracts for a combined total of $20,000,000 - a little more than the current market price. Jon`Crude now has a guaranteed buyer for 100 contracts of oil. Fishy Foodz gains two benefits: guaranteed price and guaranteed supply; in 6 months Fishy Foodz will be delivered 80,000 barrels of oil and they will pay Jon`Crude $20,000,000 for it.
But the marketplace fluctuates. 4 months later Fishy Foodz is having a bad quarter, and they will only need 60,000 barrels of oil. What they can do is sell the outstanding contracts to a speculator like Happydud.
So Happydud buys the extra contracts, and Happydud is happy because the calligraphy is so pretty. He sits on them for about 2 months and hopes the price will go up in that time. It does. Let's say it's now $350/bl.
Come the deadline, and CEO Wookie discovers that his employees had a gasoline drinking contest over the weekend. He needs 20,000 barrels of oil FAST. He can buy it from the oil company for the current market price - costing him $7,000,000 - or he can head over to the futures market.
Happydud agrees to sell his outstanding contracts for oil (@ $250/bl) to WookCorp for $265/bl - WookCorp saves $1,700,000 and Happydud won a free ticket for $300,000 for guessing right. And everybody is happy.
...Except Jon`Crude, who is out $2,000,000. Jon`Crude is not happy. And because Jon`Crude has sole control over the favorite hobbies of American news journalists - drinking kerosene - Jon`Crude makes a lot of hubbub about how the speculators are ruining the economy. Ha ha! And the politicians love drinking kerosene too, so maybe Jon`Crude will be able to make not paying full market price in spite of prior agreements illegal! Maybe punishable by death! Who knows???