This is not "who do you want to win," but who think will *actually* win. Just curious.

I would say its most likely to be Obama.

I feel McClain really shot himself in the foot by selecting miss Nowhere to be his colistier.

To be honest I don't see Obama winning after all the crap that's come up. Charisma doesn't always win.

True enough. I'm not really up to date on the development, so really my vote is mostly uneducated.

Economy is screwed: lefties historically win.

Ze black man.

All the crap that's come up on Obama is just that: crap. He's still kicking *** in the polls, and nobody gives a **** about Ayers anymore, and anyone who does wasn't going to vote for Obama anyway.

If I remember correctly Bush did terribly in polls. Look where that ended up.

The polls sample a small set of people primarily in large cities.

And large cities generally swing democrat.

While rural areas generally swing republican.

So the polls are taken in areas that generally swing democrat.

What could go wrong?

The two people above me make good points, but I don't think that'll swing it this time.

Me.

Yeah, Squirrel King.

He'd be better than either Obama or McCain, sadly.

Yeah, except more generalized, the incumbent party loses when the economy is bad (in US elections).

Though, Obama being black is a variable that's not been tested yet.

It won't matter as much as people think it will. It's still a contest between two presidential candidates. The VP candidate can hurt a little bit, but that's about it.

Bradley effect lol

Hard to call, I've seen lots of TV talking heads calling it for one or the other, but they all had reasons to spin it, so I don't know

Also true.

He's black? Amazing, 50% white, 44% arabian, 6% black... and he's black!

Really, just going by the numbers here, he's clearly just another white guy.

His behavior is incredibly white.

I don't trust Obama. He's...he's an arab.

Obama's going to win, and it's not going to be close. The election could realistically be over as early as 8 p.m. if the networks call Virginia in Obama's favor.

It's not true that Bush did terribly in the polls, at least not this late in the game. He led Kerry throughout September and October.



This falls somewhere between overly simplistic and completely wrong. No pollster worth his salt is going to let an easily correctable bias like that into his poll. It's not like it's any more difficult to call a phone in a rural area than to call one in an urban area. Anyway, samples are carefully weighted for party ID.

Polling's not an exact science, but with the exception of the NH Democratic primary, the polls have been pretty reliable so far this election. What's more, no one has ever come back from the kind of polling deficit McCain is looking at with two weeks to go. Obama has every advantage and it will take some kind of major external event for McCain even to have a chance.



I don't understand why something this wrong and this irrelevant gets repeated as often as it does. Obama's grandfather and grandmother on his father's side are both black Luo Kenyan.

I think Obama will, but that's a tenuous prediction. This election has had more twists and turns than a roller coaster and I wouldn't be surprised if something comes out that changes the outcome.

Not to mention that everyone seems to love Palin. I am actually quite open this election... the only thing that leads me to want McCain to win over Obama is his service in the Navy, and Obama's abortion policy... Other than those two things its dead even in my mind.

That said, I think no matter what we americans like to think about ourselves, the race issue is going to affect Obama negatively. And alot, nay, probably most, military are going to vote McCain. And how often do they get represented in the polls?

I strongly disagree with the notion that it won't be close. If anything the raw number of racist votes will even it out, as sad as that is.

Because racists always check the racial percentage first.

I wish I had put serious money on Obama for this and Lordi for Eurovision back when I first heard they were running.

I think Obama will win in a landslide.

Haven't decided who I'm voting for yet. Probably McCain.

...lol

Until the debates, when Gore made an *** of himself.

cuz his middle name is Hussein hurr

B-b-b-b-b-but! Obama supports Beelzebub!

http://foxforum.blogs.foxnews.com/2008/10/23/jpinkerton_1023/



And a black guy beat up a mccain supporter! haha oh wait she made that up.

It's very clear that Obama will win at this stage. The only worry I have is the Evangelicals, but it seems they really disliked Palin.

I can't understand why anyone would possibly vote for McCain besides the generic push-button topics that Sarn made himself into. Seriously, I don't know why the republican party put out such a bad candidate this year. Mit would've at least been a decent representative of his party. McCain is a highly liberal "conservative" who does little more than sound like a grumpy, complaining old man. Young conservatives are the new majority, and McCain is the worst sales pitch to those new, uncertain voters.

Wasn't Bush behind in the polls in 2004 as well?

I think it's sad we decide our leaders based on everything we can think of except their policies. Race, gender, job history, veteran status, middle names, fewest media bobbles, how well their decisions reflect poll numbers, etc.

Ya'll get what you deserve.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/24/mccain.evangelical/index.html

And never mind the fact you have to be totally loaded to get anywhere near considered for it.

And then Kerry made an *** of himself.

Luckily, this time, it's Obama who's done a good job of letting John McCain make an *** of himself.

Yep. This factor ALONE makes it so much a farce that I can't participate. And that's not even the biggest farce factor; the biggest farce is there are only two choices.

Look how hard Bush failed 2000-2004, and America still voted him for another term. I would not be surprised if McCain were elected.

I think it's only because of the racist voters that the polls are as close as they are right now. The folks who won't vote for a black man aren't waiting to make up their minds, holding out for the chance that Obama will unexpectedly turn white sometime in the next eleven days. They've decided.

And there's not going to be a Bradley effect. The Bradley effect involves racist voters telling pollsters they're undecided or voting for the black guy in order to hide their racism, but then pulling the lever for the white guy when election day rolls around. That's not going to happen here. There are enough perfectly intelligent reasons not to vote for Obama that there's no sense in voters hiding their preferences. The numbers from the primaries also don't bear out the existence of a modern Bradley effect, and it's quite possible that the effect didn't even exist when Tom Bradley himself lost the California governor's race.

This is a bit of misleading. To get the nomination for one of the major parties (like Free said), you have to be successful and in politics. Which makes sense. It just happens to be that with that usually comes a fair amount of money. But phrasing it the way you did makes it sound like only those who have always been wealthy / elite can be president a la the nobility and monarchies of historical Europe... which isn't true. If you want to be considered for it, then become successful and loaded.

That aside, though, it is worth noting that candidates get an obscene amount of donations to fund their election ... as of this past June Obama had raised $349,716,137 and McCain $144,071,945.