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☖ Forums → Discussion Forum → Who do you think will win the election?
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Who do you think will win the election?
2008-10-24, 1:46 PM #41
Originally posted by Krokodile:
Look how hard Bush failed 2000-2004, and America still voted him for another term. I would not be surprised if McCain were elected.


If you think the waiters are rude, you should see the manager.
2008-10-24, 2:55 PM #42
If McCain is elected, i will personally poop on every American i meet.
Especially Grismath.
He likes dat sorta thing.
Code:
if(getThingFlags(source) & 0x8){
  do her}
elseif(getThingFlags(source) & 0x4){
  do other babe}
else{
  do a dude}
2008-10-24, 3:01 PM #43
The more Europeans express support for Obama, the more Americans will vote for McCain. I guarantee it.
"it is time to get a credit card to complete my financial independance" — Tibby, Aug. 2009
2008-10-24, 3:24 PM #44
President Obama will win.
Think while it's still legal.
2008-10-24, 5:35 PM #45
Originally posted by Michael MacFarlane:
I think it's only because of the racist voters that the polls are as close as they are right now. The folks who won't vote for a black man aren't waiting to make up their minds, holding out for the chance that Obama will unexpectedly turn white sometime in the next eleven days. They've decided.

And there's not going to be a Bradley effect. The Bradley effect involves racist voters telling pollsters they're undecided or voting for the black guy in order to hide their racism, but then pulling the lever for the white guy when election day rolls around. That's not going to happen here. There are enough perfectly intelligent reasons not to vote for Obama that there's no sense in voters hiding their preferences. The numbers from the primaries also don't bear out the existence of a modern Bradley effect, and it's quite possible that the effect didn't even exist when Tom Bradley himself lost the California governor's race.


your kind of fulfilling your own prophecies here...
your implying that only racists voters have made up their mind at this point and thats the only reason the polls are close... then you say that the bradley effect only happened because of racist voters saying one thing and then voting differently to "hide" their racism... and then you say that a bradley effect cant possibly happen because theres no sense in voters hiding their preference... so therefor if there is a bradley effect it will be because of racists... ever occur to you that maybe a voter is going to vote mcCain because of policy issues but says he is going to vote obama because he believes if he says differently he will wrongly be labeled as a racist?
Welcome to the douchebag club. We'd give you some cookies, but some douche ate all of them. -Rob
2008-10-24, 5:36 PM #46
having said that i sadly think obama is probably going to win.
Welcome to the douchebag club. We'd give you some cookies, but some douche ate all of them. -Rob
2008-10-24, 5:44 PM #47
Originally posted by Freelancer:
His behavior is incredibly white.


What is "black behvaior" then?
2008-10-24, 5:46 PM #48
Not being a stuffy, incredibly boring douche.
"it is time to get a credit card to complete my financial independance" — Tibby, Aug. 2009
2008-10-24, 5:51 PM #49
racist :colbert:
[01:52] <~Nikumubeki> Because it's MBEGGAR BEGS LIKE A BEGONI.
2008-10-24, 5:54 PM #50
I read it as erection :omg:
2008-10-24, 6:09 PM #51
Already won that.
2008-10-24, 6:22 PM #52
Originally posted by Darth_Alran:
your kind of fulfilling your own prophecies here...
your implying that only racists voters have made up their mind at this point and thats the only reason the polls are close...


Well, obviously I think there are plenty of non-racist voters who have made up their minds as well. But I do think that most or all of the racist voters have made their decisions.

And yes, I think racism is one of the reasons we have a race that seems closer than it should be. A study (in September, I think?) suggested that Obama could take a hit of as much as 6% nationally due to his race. I suspect the number's closer to 3-4% among actual likely voters, but even that much would put Obama in or near double digits.

Quote:
then you say that the bradley effect only happened because of racist voters saying one thing and then voting differently to "hide" their racism... and then you say that a bradley effect cant possibly happen because theres no sense in voters hiding their preference...


I think that's a pretty accurate restatement of what I said, yes. I don't think racist voters will lie to pollsters about their preferences when they can tell the truth about their preferences and lie about their motivations instead.

Quote:
so therefor if there is a bradley effect it will be because of racists...


If the Bradley effect occurs, then by definition it occurs because of racists.

Quote:
ever occur to you that maybe a voter is going to vote mcCain because of policy issues but says he is going to vote obama because he believes if he says differently he will wrongly be labeled as a racist?


An interesting idea, but it's not really the Bradley effect per se and I also think it's pretty unlikely. If a person feels he has good policy reasons to vote for McCain, I think he'll have little trouble admitting to his choice in a poll, especially when he knows that he can answer the follow-up questions honestly. After all, it's not as though all McCain voters are presumed racist until proven otherwise.

If I were to put my argument in as few words as possible, it would be this: The Bradley effect requires that the preferences of racist voters do not show up in the polls until election day. I believe that racism is already accounted for in the polls.
If you think the waiters are rude, you should see the manager.
2008-10-24, 6:33 PM #53
Rick Astley
eat right, exercise, die anyway
2008-10-24, 8:13 PM #54
The Bradley Effect might not even matter that much.

Quote:
Now, the problem with this theory is that there are almost no examples of its having happened. It’s named for Tom Bradley, the mayor of Los Angeles, who ran for the governor of California and did much better in polls beforehand than he did on Election Day. Well, it turns out, if you study that race, that the reason why he lost was that a lot of bad news about his tenure in Los Angeles came out just before the election. That’s the reason why people often lose elections. There are only two races that we know of where the Bradley Effect may arguably have obtained, both in 1989: Doug Wilder’s run for the governor of Virginia and David Dinkins’s first run for the mayor of New York, where Dinkins didn’t do as well as we thought he would. Well, in his second run, the polls were dead on.

The point is, we’re talking about two races that may form the basis for this idea that Barack Obama, with his enormous lead, may lose because of millions and millions of closet racists, you know, who will say one thing to pollsters, out of a fear of not seeming politically correct, and then vote a different way. I’ll tell you why I worry about this. Something that you very, very badly need to steal elections, aside from the apparatus and the volunteers and all the money and everything, is a narrative. You have to have a convincing rationale to explain an upset victory. Four years ago, the rationale was millions of values voters materialized on the horizon at the end of the day, and like Jesus with loaves and fishes, they suddenly multiplied and voted for Bush, and then they disappeared. Well, there’s no evidence that that actually happened. But it served as a narrative. This time, I’m afraid the primary narrative will be racism: Barack Obama actually lost, despite all predictions, because so many Americans are racist.

http://www.democracynow.org/2008/10/22/votes


So I'm just worried about McCain stealing the election.
2008-10-24, 8:20 PM #55
So, basically, if Obama loses, for whatever reason, it's actually because we're racist?

How wonderfully biased.
2008-10-24, 8:30 PM #56
No, that's just the story McCain can tell if he steals the election.

And if Obama wins, McCain will blame ACORN and voter fraud.
2008-10-24, 8:36 PM #57
Originally posted by JM:
So, basically, if Obama loses, for whatever reason, it's actually because we're racist?

How wonderfully biased.


Yes. You racist.
[01:52] <~Nikumubeki> Because it's MBEGGAR BEGS LIKE A BEGONI.
2008-10-24, 8:46 PM #58
Originally posted by Vin:
So I'm just worried about McCain stealing the election.


lol, so as i've said before... democrats dont lose elections they are always cheated out of winning.:downswords:
Welcome to the douchebag club. We'd give you some cookies, but some douche ate all of them. -Rob
2008-10-24, 9:46 PM #59
A lot of people talk about racists voting against Obama because he's black, but if a black person votes for Obama because he's black, is it racism?
2008-10-24, 9:49 PM #60
Yes, or just idiots. You should be judged not by your skin, but by the content of your character. A concept that will be lost on white and black voters alike.
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2008-10-25, 12:05 AM #61
Originally posted by Anakin9012:
A lot of people talk about racists voting against Obama because he's black, but if a black person votes for Obama because he's black, is it racism?


Yes. But since the Democrats typically get about 90% of the black vote anyway, it'll be awfully hard to tell.
If you think the waiters are rude, you should see the manager.
2008-10-25, 12:53 PM #62
I find it difficult to believe that McCain can win. I think that Obama's message of McCain being 4-8 more years of Bush is really resonating with the American people. I find that both candidates are a bit too conservative for my taste so I most likely won't be voting, but Obama appears to be the lesser of 2 evils in my view.
? :)
2008-10-25, 1:47 PM #63
Not sure someone as "religious" as that should be leading a power with nuclear weapons. But I suppose its better than Bush.
2008-10-25, 1:56 PM #64
On another note, even McCain is getting fed up with Palin.
一个大西瓜
2008-10-25, 2:09 PM #65
[mp3]http://media2.podbean.com/pb/fab602d0ef547c4d7bec6d243037a975/49038715/blogs2/56462/uploads/great-crepitation-contest.mp3[/mp3]

my thoughts on this whole thing
eat right, exercise, die anyway
2008-10-25, 5:15 PM #66
Quote:
It's very clear that Obama will win at this stage. The only worry I have is the Evangelicals, but it seems they really disliked Palin.
Erm...what? Palin is the only reason McCain has any evangelical support. They love her. She's anti-gay marriage, anti-abortion, and had a disabled child even though she could have had him aborted. And she's a conservative feminist. She is the religious right's wet dream. On the day Palin was announced as VP, I saw several religious right leaders saying they would now vote for McCain, whereas they just weren't going to vote before.

Quote:
Yes, or just idiots. You should be judged not by your skin, but by the content of your character. A concept that will be lost on white and black voters alike.

There's also those that will vote for him so they can say "I voted for the first black president!" or because they have white guilt. Of course, this is as nebulous as the thought of how much anti-black racists are going to matter.

If Obama wins, I get four years of listening to Rush and Hannity crying like little babies. If McCain wins, I get four more years of making fun of people with Bush Derangement Syndrome, though now it'll be a slightly different strain. It's win-win for me!
Democracy: rule by the stupid
2008-10-25, 7:35 PM #67
Originally posted by SAJN:
President Obama will win.

We elected him all ready? :confused:

I really am getting the feeling that McCain is Bush #3. However, I do not believe Obama is any better. He's the same tax & spend liberal just like everyone else.

He's going to win by a landslide electorally. Popular vote is going to be closer. He'll definitely get majority (50% + 1) But it'll probably be 51-49 or something like that. I can see him getting 350+ electoral votes (271 needed to win).

If the Republican Party even half paid attention in civics class, they'd be trying to get their Representatives/Senators elected. McCain's a lost cause pretty much from get-go. However, put a few more R's in Congress and Obama is going to have a hard time getting his tax & spend policies through Congress. However, that is not going to be the case. I see the Democrats running WILD in this election. Wide majorities in both Houses.
Code to the left of him, code to the right of him, code in front of him compil'd and thundered. Programm'd at with shot and $SHELL. Boldly he typed and well. Into the jaws of C. Into the mouth of PERL. Debug'd the 0x258.
2008-10-25, 7:47 PM #68
Originally posted by dalf:
If the Republican Party even half paid attention in civics class, they'd be trying to get their Representatives/Senators elected. McCain's a lost cause pretty much from get-go. However, put a few more R's in Congress and Obama is going to have a hard time getting his tax & spend policies through Congress. However, that is not going to be the case. I see the Democrats running WILD in this election. Wide majorities in both Houses.


Trust me, they know. They're running ads in North Carolina essentially warning that if Elizabeth Dole isn't re-elected, Obama will have free rein as President. But they don't have a lot of free cash and they're having to make tough choices on where to spend it, so the best they can really do is limit their losses and try to keep the Democrats from hitting 60 in the Senate.
If you think the waiters are rude, you should see the manager.
2008-10-25, 9:18 PM #69
Originally posted by dalf:
He's the same tax & spend liberal just like everyone else.

I'm not sure I understand what is fundamentally wrong with "tax and spend." Provided that: we have the money (hahahaha) and the programs benefit the nation. Or are those exactly the reasons you don't like it?
Bassoon, n. A brazen instrument into which a fool blows out his brains.
2008-10-25, 9:21 PM #70
The government already taxes and spends.
2008-10-25, 9:51 PM #71
Quote:
I'm not sure I understand what is fundamentally wrong with "tax and spend." Provided that: we have the money (hahahaha) and the programs benefit the nation. Or are those exactly the reasons you don't like it?


Personally, A) I dislike ALL government. No, I'm not an anarchist, but that doesn't mean I have to LIKE it. More government programs is almost always bad, and more programs require more money, which means higher taxes.

B) I can't afford to pay higher tax. They already steal enough of my money. You can claim I will get things back, but I won't. I'm not on welfare; but if I ever dropped below the poverty line I could get more from local charities than I ever would from the government - not to mention the idiotic way welfare is setup, such that if I get a job, I lose the welfare, and have LESS net-money. Both candidates health care programs are detrimental to me. My local government taxes me an obscene amount to support a failing school system. I have no children to attend these schools; and if I did, I would pay for the schooling TWICE by sending them to a private school where they might actually get an education. Some of my taxes supposedly goes to the construction and repair of roads, but I still can't get anywhere. Our traffic is incredible. We have literally two roads going north/south through here, and 50% of our population, easily, commutes north. And so do the people south of us. And they aren't so much roads as a series of potholes with lines painted on them.

So. The government will take more of my money; I will get worse health care; I might need welfare services BECAUSE they took more of my money, which easily cancels out any additional money they got from me; and the rest of it goes to things that have no effect on me, or is wasted in inefficient bureaucratic bull****.

Why would I LIKE a tax-and-spend policy?
2008-10-25, 10:14 PM #72
Did you know?

* Obama has never publicly stated that he is not a flesh vehicle for a team of tiny aliens

* Obama has fallen asleep to the history channel, What secret Hitler dream messages now rule his subconscious?

* Obama routinely hibernates from July 3rd to July 5th.

* Obama refuses to talk about any instances in which he accidentally defecated in his pants. Are we to believe a human can go their entire lives without an urgent fecal mistake? America deserves the truth.

* Obama does not know how to drive a monster truck.

* Ask your self this, has Obama ever shaken your hand, looked you directly in the eye, and told you he's not a Muslim? Why not? Is he scared you'll know he's lying. If he's done this once, why hasn't he done it twice?

* Obama hasn't taken the time to write any patriotic songs. Obama has written zero patriotic songs. Zero. No ditties either.

* Obama's teeth, being made of enamel, or capable of crushing the windpipe of a smiling child. Yet, he chooses to keep them.

* Obama wouldn't laugh at the jokes you like. They'd make him uncomfortable.

* Obama has never bought Ronald Reagan a drink.
2008-10-25, 10:23 PM #73
Originally posted by Emon:
I'm not sure I understand what is fundamentally wrong with "tax and spend." Provided that: we have the money (hahahaha) and the programs benefit the nation. Or are those exactly the reasons you don't like it?

We don't have the money and it seldomly benefits the nation. Yeah, there are some gems out there that actually do work but the vast majority are inept, wasteful, and have little accountability. I, honestly, do not trust the federal gov't. to run something a bake sale. A cupcake would take three forms in triplicate sent off to station 1A then processed by the subdepartment of the bureau of the undersecretary of the accounting office of the Department of Agriculture. Only on approval, can the cupcake be baked providing that the oven, milk, eggs, frosting, and butter meet with Department of Agriculture standards and guidelines.

Where is privately own institutions all competing to provide a service to the nation would find the cheapest, most effective way of baking a cupcake. Problem is that Congress was often lobbied by the Yellow Cupcake Group and so Congress favored yellow cupcakes and then soon chocolate cupcakes couldn't compete and forced out. Now everyone is left with yellow cupcakes. If Congress ignored the YCG and made sure that no one cupcake bakery used untold practices to get an unfair advantage, we'd have yellow, white, and chocolate cupcakes and everyone would be happy!

Except for me, I don't have a cupcake. :(
Code to the left of him, code to the right of him, code in front of him compil'd and thundered. Programm'd at with shot and $SHELL. Boldly he typed and well. Into the jaws of C. Into the mouth of PERL. Debug'd the 0x258.
2008-10-25, 10:48 PM #74
Originally posted by dalf:
He's going to win by a landslide electorally. Popular vote is going to be closer. He'll definitely get majority (50% + 1) But it'll probably be 51-49 or something like that. I can see him getting 350+ electoral votes (271 needed to win).
I expect the race to tighten in the next 10 days, but I don't think it's going to be as close as you think. :P
2008-10-25, 10:52 PM #75
Originally posted by JM:
* Obama does not know how to drive a monster truck.


Well ****, that changes everything..
"it is time to get a credit card to complete my financial independance" — Tibby, Aug. 2009
2008-10-25, 11:44 PM #76
I don't like Obama's plan of forced wealth redistribution.

I don't like McCain's plan of buying out bad mortgages.

*sigh*
woot!
2008-10-26, 9:38 AM #77
Originally posted by Freelancer:
Well ****, that changes everything..


Change we need! :omg:
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2008-10-26, 9:42 AM #78
Originally posted by JM:
Why would I LIKE a tax-and-spend policy?

I see you point, but I think it's more appropriate to say that tax and spend doesn't work here.
Bassoon, n. A brazen instrument into which a fool blows out his brains.
2008-10-26, 10:53 AM #79
Originally posted by Freelancer:
His behavior is incredibly white.
This statement is incredibly white.
Dreams of a dreamer from afar to a fardreamer.
2008-10-26, 10:58 AM #80
Originally posted by dalf:
We don't have the money and it seldomly benefits the nation. Yeah, there are some gems out there that actually do work but the vast majority are inept, wasteful, and have little accountability. I, honestly, do not trust the federal gov't. to run something a bake sale. A cupcake would take three forms in triplicate sent off to station 1A then processed by the subdepartment of the bureau of the undersecretary of the accounting office of the Department of Agriculture. Only on approval, can the cupcake be baked providing that the oven, milk, eggs, frosting, and butter meet with Department of Agriculture standards and guidelines.

Where is privately own institutions all competing to provide a service to the nation would find the cheapest, most effective way of baking a cupcake. Problem is that Congress was often lobbied by the Yellow Cupcake Group and so Congress favored yellow cupcakes and then soon chocolate cupcakes couldn't compete and forced out. Now everyone is left with yellow cupcakes. If Congress ignored the YCG and made sure that no one cupcake bakery used untold practices to get an unfair advantage, we'd have yellow, white, and chocolate cupcakes and everyone would be happy!

Except for me, I don't have a cupcake. :(


Easily the most delicious take on politics I have read....kudos to you, good sir. I would vote for you if you ran on a firm platform of cupcakes for all.
www.dailyvault.com. - As Featured in Guitar Hero II!
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