Look at box office numbers vs budgets. Budgets don't often include advertising cost, or the cost of prints either (and the cost is substantial). Most movies are absolutely not successful.
Here's a basic rundown for the movies at the top of the box office right now:
1. The Vow. Budget: ~30m. Total gross to date: 41.7m.
This is the movie's first weekend in theaters, and it's already made back the budget at then some. This will be considered a successful movie.
2. Safe House. Budget: ~85m. Total gross to date: 39m.
First weekend for this one, too, but the budget is obviously much higher. It didn't make nearly what it needed to considering it also had a massive ad campaign trying to capitalize on Denzel Washington starring in the movie. Time will tell, but it looks like it should at least make its cost back.
3. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island. Budget: ~79m. Total gross to date: 27m.
Being that this is a family film, at this time of year, we can expect the box office to drop significantly after the opening weekend. Might still make its money back, though.
4. Star Wars: Episode I The Phantom Menace in 3d. n/a.
We already know this movie has made assloads of money in theaters.
Those are the new movies out this weekend in wide release. Looks like they should all at least make back their budgets and maybe the advertising cost. The Vow will be considered a hit, but other than that, we're in solid flop territory this weekend.
Let's take a look at some of the other movies out right now that didn't do so well:
8. Big Miracle. Budget: ~40m. Total gross to date: 13.2 million.
Will not make the budget back. Studio lost significant money on this film
10. Underworld Awakening. Budget: ~70m. Total gross to date: 58m
Should eventually break even with dvd/blu sales.
11. Red Tails. Budget: ~58m. Total gross to date: 45m.
Should eventually break even with dvd/blu sales.
12. One For The Money. Budget: ~40m. Total gross to date: 23m.
Will not return on budget/ads. Big loss for studio.
16. Man on a Ledge. Budget: ~42m. Total gross to date: 17m.
Won't come close to making back budget or money spent on massive ad campaign. Huge loss for the studio.
Those are our flops right now. Universal is going to lose huge on Big Miracle and Safe House, but luckily Contraband did very well. Looks like they're going to lose about 20m on Big Miracle, but Contraband has profited over 30m, so it's no big deal. Ad costs included, they're breaking even right now at the box office.
Warner Bros only has 2 movies in the top 25 right now. Journey 2 will just about break even, but Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close has flopped pretty badly. So it's hard to tell.
Fox is raking it in right now, with Star Wars, Chronicle, The Descendants, and Alvin and the Chipmunks all raking it in, while only taking losses on Red Tails.
Screen Gems is raking it in with The Vow, but taking a hosing on Underworld. Breaking even right now.
Paramount is kicking ass with Hugo and Mission Impossible being big hits, but Tin Tin wasn't what they thought it would be.
While Summit lost it's ass on Man on a Ledge, and The Darkest Hour, they're still pulling in cash from Twilight, so they'll be alright.
The movies in the top 25 that have actually made enough to justify their creation are as follows:
The Vow
Chronicle
The Grey
The Descendants
The Artist
Hugo
Contraband
The Iron Lady
Mission Impossible
Alvin and the Chipmunks
War Horse
That's eleven movies in the top 25 that either have made, or will make considerable profit.
Furthermore, like I said, these are only movies in wide release in the top 25. This does not count movies that didn't open in the top 25. There are dozens of independent films each week that go nowhere. They'll get a limited release in a few markets, but won't make enough to justify further release. Movies like Rampart, on the other hand, which was hailed as amazing by the film festival crowds, and has gotten a lot of praise from reviews. It made 65k this weekend, on a total of 5 screens. It's averaging around 13k per screen. It will get a wider and wider release and potentially end up being a big hit.
Not all movies do that, though. Most of them go nowhere. Keep an eye on the weekend charts. You'll see what I mean.
http://boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/
Granted, this is a very slow time of the year for movies, but without the summer movie season, hollywood wouldn't be able to make a profit anymore. There are entirely too many movies coming out each weekend for people to go see them all. It's far different than it was in the 1980s and prior, when movies would be run in theaters for months and months at a time. In today's world, a movie has to make a big lump sum of cash on opening weekend, otherwise it's going to be doomed. It's extremely rare for movies to continue to make decent money for an extended period of time. The only one's that have done it in the last two decades have been Avatar and Titanic. Not sure what James Cameron does to extend the life of his movies in theaters, but he's doing it right. Other than those two movies, you see dramatic drops in box office numbers after the first weekend, and the business will continue to drop rapidly, until the movie goes away, potentially to do well on dvd/blu.
In closing, when you actually pay attention to the business side of the film industry, you can start talking about how much money it makes. You're like the people who think that because Tom Brady makes 13 million a year, that all NFL players make that kind of money. Just because a lot of movies do very well, doesn't mean that the thousands of other ones released each year do too.
