It'll be easier to discern what role luck plays tomorrow when we see what he's planning on doing. But to be honest, I'm not even convinced that this is the wrong thing to do. Obama's strategy was to put intense pressure on the Israelis, and in turn, he didn't even have enough leverage over the Palestinians to stop them from defying American foreign policy and seeking recognition through various international fora while they refused to participate in negotiations. We tried that for eight years, and Obama had startlingly little to show for it compared to any other president since... Eisenhower, probably. It might be time to try pressuring the Palestinians, and showing them that if they don't negotiate, time won't be on their side (if we continued on with Obama's strategy, it would be, because the longer the conflict goes on, the more it damages Israel's reputation, and the Palestinian leadership knows that and take advantage of it, at the expense of a deal).
Also, I'm not quick to dismiss Trump's choice as mere racism. For one thing, Trump has magic in the Middle East that he doesn't have elsewhere in the world. He's more popular in the region than anywhere else in the world.