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ForumsDiscussion Forum → Inauguration Day, Inauguration Hooooooraaay!
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Inauguration Day, Inauguration Hooooooraaay!
2017-05-17, 11:32 PM #2161
I am fairly certain that Sarah Palin's loyal followers have long since written off the 'lamestream media'.
2017-05-18, 12:59 AM #2162
Originally posted by Jon`C:
I'm not giving them credit, I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt. FPTP causes strategic voting and vote splitting so you can't use a 45% popular win to say anything about what the majority actually believes about Trump. All you can say for sure is that a majority of registered Republicans preferred a non-Trump candidate.


Maybe. But an overwhelming majority of Republicans who voted in 2016 (79%) approve of his presidency.
former entrepreneur
2017-05-18, 1:27 AM #2163
Originally posted by Eversor:
Maybe. But an overwhelming majority of Republicans who voted in 2016 (79%) approve of his presidency.


Pretty much every president sits at ~80% approval from his party.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/01/12/presidential-job-approval-ratings-from-ike-to-obama/ft_16-01-06_presapproval/

80% of Republican voters would approve of the box of snuff films Eric Trump keeps under his bed, as long as it promised to cut the estate tax.
2017-05-18, 2:03 AM #2164
Originally posted by Jon`C:
Pretty much every president sits at ~80% approval from his party.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/01/12/presidential-job-approval-ratings-from-ike-to-obama/ft_16-01-06_presapproval/

80% of Republican voters would approve of the box of snuff films Eric Trump keeps under his bed, as long as it promised to cut the estate tax.


I know that that's a joke, but not nearly enough people have the assets to be affected personally by the repeal of the Estate Tax for that to explain his popularity. But leaving that aside, my point is just that Trump's support is actually quite normal, even though he's been an abnormal candidate/president.

It's notable, although not entirely surprising given present day political and media polarization, that while Nixon's popularity among Republicans cratered as he became more embroiled in scandal, nothing like that is happening to Trump. And that's with some GOP senators making explicit comparisons to Watergate.
former entrepreneur
2017-05-18, 8:35 AM #2165
I know your point. I'm saying it's slavish partisanship, not "actual" support from the base.

For example, it doesn't actually mean there would be consequences if the GOP impeached him and replaced him with another Republican.
2017-05-18, 1:33 PM #2166
Eh. Agree to disagree.
former entrepreneur
2017-05-18, 3:27 PM #2167
Originally posted by Spook:
Do you think that is because power structures select for personality types that are prone to doing stupid **** and insisting that they have a magical mandate to do that ****?

Edit: (Referencing Reid's last post) Because based on my experience in the US military and even dealing with local level politicians, these are the personalities who are incentivized to succeed in these realms, and indeed, the world at large. And it's pretty awful and will certainly be our downfall as an industrialized civilization.

My impression is that this is a side product of controlling, tyrannical people in tension with Democratic institutions.

Democracy encourages lying, distracting, and other forms to convince people to support you when you didn't earn it. If every politician was forced to be more honest with themselves and their populace, most politicians would lose their seats next election.

Sometimes, though, simply bull****ting about stuff doesn't work. **** people hard enough and they'll see through the lies. That's when you need distractions. Conflicts between nations are pretty good at distracting people from what's going on at home. And if every country is scared of you, you must really push the boundaries to get any sort of response, no country wants to get bombed to **** and back. Which means the only politicians who can distract from their ****ing are ones who can bully other nations into war, or just outright invading on lies (Bush).

E.g., one of the most famous American quotes is Reagan impelling Gorbachev to tear down a wall. His speech didn't do anything diplomatically, really, but it made a nice television piece they could loop and repeat. Because the aspects of government which could potentially convince the Soviets, i.e. diplomacy, economic incentives, legal pressure are not sexy, not television-friendly. But stamping your feet and demanding things is.

There is extensive literature on how to bull**** to Americans better. 20th century history is largely structured by the development of propaganda, and the technology gave new avenues to distribute it. And the battle for men's minds isn't won through reason, it's won through fear, and myths of conquest, global war, and all other sorts of spooky grand scale mythologies.

Basically, it's all an evolution of Nazi propaganda, which is an extreme form of American-born propaganda. The key here, though, is the leaders buy into their own bull**** as well, which leads to extremely irrational and self-destructive decision making. I.E. Hitler literally did think Germany was all that, despite losing really bad to the inferior Russians.
2017-05-18, 3:31 PM #2168
In fact, Hannah Arendt discusses this in her works. Imperialistic ambition is nearly always associated with repressing people at home. As long as you're able to continuously keep a global threat alive, then you can continue offending the rights of your populace, because they're afraid of the outside world. You can see, in the late 80's, as the Soviet Union appeared to be in a bit of trouble, they began searching for new global threats to spook the population. That's why terrorism as a concept was invented, the war on drugs was declared, and so forth. And they have the Bill O'Reillys in the world who prophecy coming destruction and instill in people a deep fear of the outside world, which makes them more obedient and permissive. We basically have an entire generation of insane old white people thanks to this.
2017-05-18, 3:56 PM #2169
B-but I thought it was the North Korean government that had created a species of racist dwarfs.
2017-05-18, 8:26 PM #2170
Originally posted by Reid:
In fact, Hannah Arendt discusses this in her works. Imperialistic ambition is nearly always associated with repressing people at home. As long as you're able to continuously keep a global threat alive, then you can continue offending the rights of your populace, because they're afraid of the outside world. You can see, in the late 80's, as the Soviet Union appeared to be in a bit of trouble, they began searching for new global threats to spook the population. That's why terrorism as a concept was invented, the war on drugs was declared, and so forth. And they have the Bill O'Reillys in the world who prophecy coming destruction and instill in people a deep fear of the outside world, which makes them more obedient and permissive. We basically have an entire generation of insane old white people thanks to this.


What do you think is the next generation boogeyman? Or have they finally found an inexhaustible source of paranoia in the form of Islamic Extremism? What if Islam is able to recalibrate itself to pre-Wahhabbist dominated eras? Will it continue to be mischaracterized or will they have to start picking on queers again?
Epstein didn't kill himself.
2017-05-18, 10:39 PM #2171
So, anyone care to predict what will come of the Mueller special counsel?
Nothing to see here, move along.
2017-05-18, 11:10 PM #2172
Hopefully it ends with someone punching Jason Chaffetz in his smug face before he becomes governor of my state.

Otherwise probably impeachment that will probably not result in resignation, but instead with the president also impeaching himself just to prove it was his plan all along.
Epstein didn't kill himself.
2017-05-18, 11:11 PM #2173
Originally posted by SF_GoldG_01:
So, anyone care to predict what will come of the Mueller special counsel?


I would assume absolutely nothing. What could come of it?
"I would rather claim to be an uneducated man than be mal-educated and claim to be otherwise." - Wookie 03:16

2017-05-18, 11:21 PM #2174
Originally posted by Wookie06:
I would assume absolutely nothing. What could come of it?


Obstruction of justice.
2017-05-18, 11:24 PM #2175
Witness tampering.
2017-05-18, 11:26 PM #2176
High crimes and misdemeanors.

(Which, as I understand, does not imply criminality, but rather any failure to faithfully execute the Office of the President of the United States.)
2017-05-18, 11:32 PM #2177
He's also violating the Title of Nobility Clause and Article 2 Clause 7, but that last one doesn't have anything to do with Russia.
2017-05-18, 11:34 PM #2178
Does anybody know of anything else? Is that enough?

Or was the question more along the lines of "will congress do anything about it either way"?
2017-05-19, 12:24 AM #2179
Originally posted by Spook:
Hopefully it ends with someone punching Jason Chaffetz in his smug face before he becomes governor of my state.

Otherwise probably impeachment that will probably not result in resignation, but instead with the president also impeaching himself just to prove it was his plan all along.


My main man, David Frum, says we is got to be careful for what we wish for. Booyakasha.
2017-05-19, 12:26 AM #2180
Oh my god, Ali G needs to come out of retirement to interview the president. I think that'd be about the very best possible way to eternally highlight the exact intellectual plane the POTUS is on par with.

Ali G could pretend to be dead serious about the usual non-sense, and when Trump responds with his own non-sense in kind, upon witnessing this parity, even the most deluded apologist could never defend the man again without blushing.
2017-05-19, 12:31 AM #2181
To Jon`C's list of crimes, I would also add that the man has also violated Twitter's terms of service.

Many times.
2017-05-19, 12:33 AM #2182
Eh it looks like it already happened.

Sorry, don't know how to play this video :(
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sP5ElraFHHE
2017-05-19, 1:17 AM #2183
Originally posted by Spook:
What do you think is the next generation boogeyman? Or have they finally found an inexhaustible source of paranoia in the form of Islamic Extremism? What if Islam is able to recalibrate itself to pre-Wahhabbist dominated eras? Will it continue to be mischaracterized or will they have to start picking on queers again?


It's hard to say. Currently Russia is the biggest boogeyman (I should clarify that just because a threat might be overstated, doesn't make it entirely imaginary). Young people really liked Sanders, really hated Trump, and Clinton was meh. But I don't think young people are going to get into politics unless there's a serious crisis. Which I believe there will be. My honest feeling is that we are nearing the end of Pax Americana. Not immediately, but within a few decades. I feel like we are going to lose centerpiece status. I mean we slowly are already, but it will ramp up a bit. Short of a total ecological or financial disaster.

As for Islam, who knows. Islamophobia will probably wax and wane, but that's hard to fight as a centerpiece ideology, unlike communism. But it can never unify as a single ideology. The only potential threat is some new military alliance forms between say Russia and China or something. But that doesn't seem likely soon either.

My best guess I suppose is that the biggest boogeyman for young people is, really, timewasting on **** like privilege and concepts in that family. Seems to be a consistent source of outrage for the right and left to be distracted by. The problem is, when you distraction is political infighting then your country is going to factionalize. Which America is ripening for. Probably won't amount to much but it's pretty clear most people are bubbled off, listening to their Bill O'Reilly analogues, getting outraged at exaggerated stories online tailored to them instead of talking and coming up with political agreements to act on (OWS anyone?).

I mean just go look at a politically left Tumblr compared to a /pol/ thread. All of these people would probably benefit if they were locked in a room with each other and no weapons for a few weeks. Maybe they would stop hating each other so much. Or maybe I'm optimistic.

So yeah, the real boogeyman today is the one tailored to suit exactly what you get most outraged about.
2017-05-19, 1:29 AM #2184
Originally posted by Spook:
What if Islam is able to recalibrate itself to pre-Wahhabbist dominated eras? Will it continue to be mischaracterized or will they have to start picking on queers again?


I suppose I could say more here. If these countries were allowed to stabilize and develop, then Wahhabism would most likely vanish on its own terms. Christian churches no longer teach now that the curse of Ham is actually just black skin. Which is to say, Christianity stopped trying to justify slavery once the people who demanded the justifications to treat blacks badly lost mainstream control. It will be the same for them, analogously with violence.

As for how it's characterized in Western media? That will probably die the same day western countries stop trying to own Middle East resources. As long as they have self-determination against western nations through Islam, it will be portrayed in a negative light in western media. They're two hands of the same puppeteer.
2017-05-20, 1:32 AM #2185
Jones, why you such a fan of David Frum?
former entrepreneur
2017-05-20, 11:41 AM #2186
Are you aware of any other conservatice intellectual voice who has persistently been on Trump's case from the beginning?

I know Frum is a principled voice because Mark Levin, who is pretty much anti-matter when it comes to unbiased political analysis, ****ing hates the guy's guts. (I've been checking in on Levin's daily show summaries, and they more or less read like Soviet propaganda in terms of their evasiveness vis. Trump's misdeads. Truly sad but it seems they are running scared.)

Frum is also an editor for a respected publication, the Atlantic.

Finally, as a Canadian with socialist roots who came to the right for certain principled reasons, he has not only had a chance to see the flaws of American politics from the outside, and has also has to reach his viewpoints by conscious choice, and is therefore going to be more concise and tempered in expressing them.

The fact that such a level headed person is basically losing his **** over Trump is a worrying sign worth paying attention to.

Finally, the man is so obsessed with Trump that you can pretty much turn off all news if you just follow his Twitter feed.

I originally began following him after reading his much circulated piece in the Atlantic, "How to build an autocracy", which you and I discussed it this thread like 40 pages back or so.
2017-05-20, 11:49 AM #2187
https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/865865814099939328

Looks like Trump's about to give a speech bragging about how great our Saudi allies are.
2017-05-20, 11:58 AM #2188
https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/wonk/wp/2017/05/18/u-s-could-get-first-paid-family-leave-benefit-under-trump-plan/

Huh. If it happens, it will be one of the few good things he does.
2017-05-20, 1:36 PM #2189
Originally posted by Wookie06:
I would assume absolutely nothing. What could come of it?


You can't be serious... Jon please tell me he isn't serious.
Nothing to see here, move along.
2017-05-20, 1:45 PM #2190
Originally posted by Reid:


lol, paid maternity leave? With a Republican congress? Definitely gonna get impeached now.
2017-05-20, 1:47 PM #2191
In the US you'd be more likely to pass a mandatory minimum prison sentence for failing to work a full shift immediately after your scheduled C-section.

Highest maternal death and complication rates in the developed world and increasing. And that's for people with health insurance.
2017-05-20, 4:34 PM #2192
Originally posted by Reid:
I suppose I could say more here. If these countries were allowed to stabilize and develop, then Wahhabism would most likely vanish on its own terms. Christian churches no longer teach now that the curse of Ham is actually just black skin. Which is to say, Christianity stopped trying to justify slavery once the people who demanded the justifications to treat blacks badly lost mainstream control. It will be the same for them, analogously with violence.

As for how it's characterized in Western media? That will probably die the same day western countries stop trying to own Middle East resources. As long as they have self-determination against western nations through Islam, it will be portrayed in a negative light in western media. They're two hands of the same puppeteer.


I generally agree, thanks for your thoughts.
Epstein didn't kill himself.
2017-05-21, 2:41 AM #2193
One thing I've realized out of all this Trump stuff is just how evil conservatives with a legal training can be.

I was reading a bit of this opinion piece in the National Review, thinking I'd get some level headed criticism from the likes of William F. Buckley or similar.

However, partly through the article, I could sense the author was probably going to argue a strongly pro-Trump case, and I looked him up on Wikipedia. He apparently has argued for all sorts of horrible right wing policies such as waterboarding, but something else clicked in my mind. Namely, I suspected that he might be a lawyer, and sure enough, Wikipedia confirmed that he went to law school.

The man has obvious priors when it comes to political choices, but on the other hand, because of his legal background, tends to see everything through the lens of legal questions, to the extent that he builds up a case in favor of his view as if the law is like physical law. This is just how Mark Levin does it, another right wing nutjob with a strong legal background.

First thing we do, kill all the lawyers.
2017-05-21, 5:31 AM #2194
Michael McFarlame, I hope you're reading this.
Looks like we're not going down after all, so nevermind.
2017-05-21, 12:00 PM #2195
I certainly hope he has better things to do than sabotage his astonishingly high insight to word ratio, than to defend ******* conservative lawyers. :P

I mean, can anyone really beat the four words of wit he left us with, by doing anything less than let them stand as a summary of the entire 50 page chorus of our collective rage?
2017-05-21, 1:59 PM #2196
Originally posted by Reverend Jones:
can anyone really beat the four words of wit he left us with


bush hid the facts
I had a blog. It sucked.
2017-05-21, 4:41 PM #2197
Speaking of scumbag laywers, more Frum Twitter:

Abstract: Andrew Sullivan says that Trump is the white OJ Simpson, whose intransigent supporters represent a cult following that even Republican leaders can't reign in, and who promise to riot us back to the future civil war.

Quote:
How does this end?

I left D.C. Wednesday for a trip to Oxford, Mississippi, for a talk. The previous night I’d watched slack-jawed as the latest Trump saga unfolded on cable news, switching back from Fox to MSNBC and CNN. As has happened so often in the last few months, it was becoming a blur. What did we now know? The president had kept Mike Flynn on staff many days after learning he was a security risk. Trump had asked FBI Director Comey to give him his personal loyalty, then fired him because he was frustrated that the investigation into ties between the Trump campaign and the Russian government was continuing. Trump then lied repeatedly about this — and sent senior staffers out there to lie as well. He threatened the FBI director with alleged “tapes” of their conversations. We also discovered that Trump had carelessly betrayed a critical ISIS source while bragging to foreign minister Lavrov and Russian ambassador Kislyak in the Oval Office. We were entering, it seemed to me, the Caligula phase of the collapse of the American republic. Pretty soon Trump would be announcing that the new FBI director would be a horse.

And then, on the little shuttle bus on the tarmac to the plane at Reagan National, I found myself sitting next to a recently retired pilot, who struck up a very pleasant conversation. He told me about a recent career change, retirement, his family, and his new neighbors who had left England to escape “the Muslims.” Okay, I thought. No need to make a scene. Just listen for a while. At one point, I gingerly indicated that I didn’t exactly share the views of his neighbors. “Oh I understand,” he said. “My wife is always telling me never to talk about religion or politics with strangers, but I can’t help myself.” No problem, I told him. I do it all the time too. Then he leaned in, pushed his wire eyeglasses up his nose, and looked straight into my eyes. “Let me tell you something,” he said. “This president will be the greatest president we have ever had in our entire history.”

Once in Mississippi, I did my daily scanning of the conservative media. The alternative story was now well-established. Trump had fired Comey because he had a right to (just like he had an “absolute” right to tell Moscow top-secret intel), and because Comey was incompetent and had screwed up the Clinton-email case. The intel gaffe was just a slip-up that wouldn’t matter much at all. There was no evidence of any connection between the Russian government and the Trump campaign — and so the investigation was hooey anyway. Comey’s memo couldn’t be talked about without the full context — so lets just wait and see. Comey was just interested in revenge anyway. The mainstream media and the “deep state” were busy trying to undermine a president who was accomplishing more than any president this early into his term.

These are, it seems to me, the two unstoppable narratives grinding our politics to a halt. The status quo in Washington — an unhinged, unfit, mentally disturbed narcissist as POTUS fast losing any faint credibility with even his own staffers — is utterly unsustainable. In a serious crisis, more than half the country won’t believe a word the president says. The White House is barely functioning; legislation is completely stalled; next week’s trip abroad will have everyone watching from behind a couch; the FBI and CIA are reeling; there’s almost no one in the State Department; no presidential due diligence is applied to military actions; the president only reads memos when his name is mentioned in them; a not-too-smart and apparently mute 35-year-old son-in-law is supposed to solve every problem in the country and world; and the press secretary is hiding in the bushes. No one has any confidence that the president couldn’t throw us into a war or a constitutional crisis at a moment’s notice. Nothing this scary has happened in my lifetime.

And yet around 35 percent of the country still somehow views every single catastrophe Trump perpetrates on America and the world as either a roaring triumph or a huge middle finger to the elites, and therefore fine. For them, everything is sustainable. When Republicans can shrug off giving top-secret Israeli intelligence to the Russians, there is nothing they cannot shrug off. We are not talking about support for various policies here. We are talking about the kind of following a cult leader has. In poll after poll, around 80 percent of Republicans still approve of the job Trump is doing. Still. That’s why the GOP leadership, even as their agenda evaporates, are leery of taking Trump on. His hold on their own voters is tighter than theirs is. It’s tighter than Nixon’s because Trump has built a reactionary movement from the ground up and taken over an entire party. He can communicate with them in ways no other Republican can. And there is no way on earth he is ever going to go quietly, if he agrees to go at all.

That’s why I have a hard time figuring out how this ends, even though it must end. Even if the conclusion of Robert Mueller’s investigation hits some pay dirt, I can see Trump surviving if he cannot be proven to be directly implicated. He’s already setting up the case: He’s being subjected to an historically unprecedented witch hunt, remember? And there’s no institution or person he won’t blame or destroy in his bid to save himself. Just ask his former creditors. If he’s up against the wall, he will treat the Constitution the way he treated his banks. Or say the Dems manage to regain the House next year, and hold impeachment hearings. Wouldn’t that simply galvanize support for Trump as he fights back against the “deep state,” the “swamp,” the GOP, and what Hannity calls the propaganda media circus — and render 66 votes in the Senate to convict him a pipe dream? Part of me wonders if he’d quit even if he’s beaten in the next presidential election? Isn’t it always rigged when he loses?

In some ways, I think the best analogy for Trump is O.J. Simpson. Even if we all know he’s guilty as sin, even if his own supporters see the flimflam behind the claptrap, even if the evidence is staring us in the face, he’ll never lose his core support. For 35 percent of the country, he’ll never be guiltier than the system he’s challenging. The best we can hope for is a Democratic House in 2018 and a grinding, grueling attempt to minimize the already enormous harm Trump has done in the meantime. We can pursue that outcome while hoping our cold civil war doesn’t get hot — because this is beginning to feel like the 1850s.
2017-05-21, 4:44 PM #2198
I guess this is what happens when you allow a two party political system to partition an electorate along the boundary between sanity on one side and fanaticism on the other.
2017-05-21, 4:47 PM #2199
Another consequence of economic divide and network effects when you have all the well-adjusted adults voting for one political party....
2017-05-21, 4:48 PM #2200
Idiocracy was entirely wrong to depict a government reflective of idiocy as anything other than unstable and utterly fascist. I guess that's where real life comes in, to correct art?
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