I'm glad we can move forward. I'm not taking this personally either, but for sake of politeness moving forward, I'll do my best to be more civil.
I think the points I'm making are misunderstood, and there's a chance I'm going to contradict myself, so I may bite a bullet or two. I need to make a distinction between facts and values. Facts are facts, for instance, we can say, "drivers with a higher BAC cause more accidents"-that is a fact. Saying "drunk people ought not drive"-that is a value. Facts and values have interplay, and it's not clear how big the distinction is, but I believe most people would agree there is a distinction.
I'll illustrate how this works in politics by analogy. Let's say I'm looking for parking in a busy city. All of the lots and safe streets are full. When I'm thinking about whether I should park in an unsafe area, my thought isn't about the morality of breaking into cars. My thought is about whether it's a likely occurance. It's a fact-laden thought, not a morality-laden thought. Of course, it is still wrong for a person to break into another person's car.
So, when you say:
I'm saying understanding America's response to Russian interference is just like considering whether someone will break into my car. It's not a moral calculus to understand what someone does. People break into cars because they're poor, or maybe because they just don't have respect for other's property. But these aren't (or aren't entirely) morality-laden claims, they are claims about causality.
Similarly, you're absolutely right that I make moral criticisms of America. I do, quite a bit, because I think America's actions in the world are often very immoral. That is a value claim. I also have a fact-claim, which is to say, I believe often times, American foreign policy causes more harm to American citizens than it helps them.
Of course, this claim also has values in it. Determining what counts as "harm" or "help" is not truly fact-based. But, if we can come to an agreement on what counts as harm or help, then we can discuss the facts, and whether the facts in conjunction with those values leads to the conclusion I stated my belief of. I also believe that any reasonable interpretation of what harms and helps American citizens will lead to that conclusion as well.
I believe you may be confused as to how morality and factuality interplay. When you say:
I'm not sure entirely what you're implying by "realist". Political realism is pretty broad, but my understanding is that it's the position that, in politics, everybody is always seeking to maximize their power, and to not have power is bad, therefore we ought to pursue having the most power. This
is a strong moral claim: it makes claims about what we ought to be doing politically in no uncertain terms. It just sounds deceptively unmoralistic, because it's name gives the pretense of factuality. But it's not. Second, it makes claims about power that I find dubious. Specifically, many formulations of political realism portray political power as a zero sum game: the belief would be that, if I don't assert power, then someone else will. It's not obvious at all to me that this is how the real world works; it may suffice in many instances as a workable model, but it's far from "the objective truth" of politics. For instance, the PATRIOT act expanded the capabilities and power of the NSA. I do not think this power was "taken away" from say Russia in order to achieve, in my view it was the creation of new power that wouldn't have existed otherwise. Similarly, I don't think it's obvious that, if the United States had never, say, invaded Iraq, that some other power would have exerted itself in the same area.
If this is not your interpretation, I'd like you to break it down. It's not at all obvious what "realism" means, and it appears to be more moralistic than you're impressing on me..
On this, you're correct. Republicans did take Obama to mean more than he said, and keep harping on a point that was never intended.
I agree, it wasn't a hardline position. Obama said something that came across much stronger than he intended. I also believe you personally read it much stronger than Obama intended.
I'm curious, though, what actions do you think Obama might have taken to reduce suffering?
Scroll down further:
The article discusses plainly how Obama tried to minimize what he said.
? I'm not sure if we're reading the same thing. It does clearly talk about how Obama backed off from the statement.
That's an irrational blame. Russia has had military presence in Syria since long before the Arab Spring. Obama would have known this, and would have factored it into any decisions he made in Syria. In this situation, Russia never "regained" a foothold in the Middle East, because they've always had that one in Syria. But to respond to what you quoted, this:
From what I've found, this is the opinion of someone at the Hudson institute. Judging from their Wikipedia, they're a center-right thinktank that's largely supportive of American military intervention. They don't come across as particularly unbiased in this. Though, I find their quote still confusing, unless if they're insinuating that Putin is grabbing power that he didn't have before in Syria? And by Pax Putinica, are they suggesting that Putin is at a peak of controlling land and influence? I'm really just not getting what they are saying, Putin's
lost a bunch of control of the Middle East. For instance: Putin and Gaddafi were close. Putin was upset when Gaddafi was
taken down[/i]. Hillary Clinton indirectly [url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fgcd1ghag5Y]claimed responsibility for doing it.
So, I just don't get what the Hudson institute is saying, if they're even
attempting to say anything factual. If I can tempt a guess, and this is surely unheard of in American politics (sarcasm): they're just talking bull**** in a way that tries to justify hostile military action. Putin's been
losing influence over the Middle East at American hands, he's not gaining it, and at worst he's violently keeping influence over the Syrian country that he had influence over before anyway.
So, yes, military hawks will be angry at a president who doesn't make military action.
.
If you read again what I said:
I was citing that source for the facts they were stating, not for the values. Clearly I disagree with that value. Is that dishonest? Maybe I should have stated a caveat. But it's not "completely" dishonest, because I was never using that source to derive anything but the fact of what causes terrorism.
Again, you're right. The report derives a different conclusion about the moral correctness of U.S. action. In other news, burglars largely condemn house alarms as immoral. We don't allow people to judge themselves in court for the same reason we don't trust this report's analysis of America's actions.
Yes, we all agree that US foreign policy has desirable and undesirable consequences, intended or unintended consequences. But the calculus must be more nuanced. First, it's a question of whether the desirable outweights the undesirable, or vice versa. I'm saying that for most, not all, but most actions, the bad outweights the good. As for the intentionality, it's more complicated than saying an action is intentional or unintentional, and therefore simply deriving the morality. If I drive drunk, or speed recklessly, and as a result kill someone, despite my actions being unintended, they were still wrong. If an action has easily perceivable, bad consequences, then it doesn't matter what is intended, it's immoral to commit to that action. It's fairly easy to see that military intervention has many unintended consequences, which are mainly felt by civilians. Thus military intervention must be done carefully, only in moral circumstances, and with clear objectives. Many of America's wars fail to meet these criteria, and some, e.g. Vietnam, fail all three.
It isn't a moralistic concern whether people will seek retribution. It's a factual one. If one attempts to cross-correlate terrorism with western actions in the Middle East, it's apparent that one precedes the other, and if you actually read what the terrorists say, they're saying they do it because of America. I mean, literally, just go and read what Osama Bin Laden was saying before 9/11:
Unless you think he's just lying, what he's saying is pretty clear. And it's not even (entirely) inaccurate. His analysis of the factuality, what causes what, is not completely wrong. He may have chosen an immoral way to take that fact, but it's not hard to predict that, when the United States does pretty much these things, you get people who are really, really angry.
You ask, then, how my quote is different than the 9/11 Commission, which reads:
You suggested they were compatible views. Yes, my quote and this quote agree on the basic facts of what causes terrorism: plundering riches, dictating to rulers, humiliating people, terrorizing people, and using their lands to spearhead wars against people they feel close to (obviously there's an antisemitic strain in what Osama said, so ignore that, what he's saying about U.S. military intervention is the thing to consider).
But the difference I have with that quote is the moral one. Since we actually are doing the things Osama Bin Laden acuses us of, and since it has come back to us and caused lots of damage, not just in terms of 9/11, but the legal changes (PATRIOT act) and two expensive wars, we should not be doing those things. And these are only the consequences Americans suffer. The consequences they suffer are worse.
Unless if you can come up with a good reason why the United States should have done the things Osama Bin Laden acuses us of doing, good things that are good enough to such a degree that they substantially outweigh the bad, then I don't see how your moral calculus can lead you to believe our actions are right, or justified.
By "single greatest", if we mean, we look at each political entity causing instability, and select the one that causes the most, then yes, American intervention IS the greatest cause of instability in the Middle East. If you think this is not the case, then I'd like you to explain how situations like Iran can be primarily made responsible to another country.
More broadly though, the western nations are responsible for destablizing the Middle East. And I include Russia in that list, they were historically Christian and culturally closest to Europe, and communism is a Western invention, so as far as I'm concerned they're western.
Napoleon hardly ever declared war first, yet we would hardly say he was not aggressive. You have to also consider the political order which existed before any violence happened. You seem to neglect this.
Saying aggression causes reverse aggression is not a moral analysis. It's one of the more unmoral claims I've made regarding U.S. foreign policy.
The thing is, you actually
can trace many bad things back directly to actions the United States has done. Sure, we can make factual errors in doing this, but I think if you take the time and analyze it with a discerning, fair mind, you'll see that it is the case.
So, yes, the thing you quoted from me was not explicitly accurate. It was hyperbole. Clearly it's not the case that every last instability in the Middle East was the cause of the United States. I do not believe that. I do believe, though, that if you look at the instability in the Middle East, you'll find that in most cases, the United States played a prominent role in causing it.
For instance, the stuff regarding Afghanistan that I discussed earlier. Surely the Soviet intervention was the big tipping point in it's downfall. But, as the Brzezinski quote shows, the United States attempted to provoke the Soviets into the war, in order to cause the Soviet downfall. Osama Bin Laden knew this, and that's part of what he's talking about in that quote.
I know of no seriously analyst who would claim that leaving Iraq would immediately stop terrorism, so, I believe you're arguing against a strawman here. IIRC the United States stopped supporting the Mujahideen in the late 80's. That would give a 10-15 year delay between the actions that would have directly affected Osama Bin Laden and 9/11. In other words, there's often a delay for these sorts of things.
But, staying mired and continuting to cause suffering, will only draw things out.
I'm using 9/11 as a centerpiece for discussion. I'm not saying that 9/11 is the single bad result of terrorism. Many people suffer as a result of destablizing a country, not just the destabilizer. That's the "unintended consequence" of intervention that's easy to predict, just like deadly car accidents are an "unintended consequence" of drunk driving. The drunk driver doesn't just have to wreck their own car for their action to be immoral.
In a sense here, you're right. Clearly people have agency and make choices.
However, this isn't born out of a condescending, ignorant reading of another's culture. I've gotten this impression from reading Dabiq. From reading Osama Bin Laden's statements. From reading al-Qaeda's publications. They literally say these things. It's not insulting to take someone at their word for face value. It's rather insulting to ignore what they're literally saying, all the time, directly, because some right-wing foreign policy journal thinks Muslims have full agency in their own suffering.
Yes. This is entirely accurate.
Religion is often used as a tool of political control, and with the case of ISIS I think this is so. But you must also recognize that, in some sense Marx was right: the material conditions of a society affect the thoughts people have. History is not driven by thoughts, it's driven by food supplies, water, who people work for and in what conditions. It's not as if ISIS was a thought that was going to plummet onto Earth in 2013 regardless of anything, the philosophies of ISIS are born out of the conditions resulting from the Iraq war.
That's not to say that there isn't an ideological fight to have, there is. Conservative Islam is one of the last belief systems that is wholly resistant to western, free-market liberal capitalism. Except western, free-market liberal capitalism is, in many ways, a take-no-prisoners ideology. Liberalism is a religion that demands quite a bit from people's lives and culture. And if the Middle East is ever going to settle and liberalize, not likely to happen any time soon, then Islam is going to have to go through an ideological reworking, or western liberalism is going to have to adapt to Islam. So on some level I do agree that the ideas of the west and Islam are in tension, but I still very much don't agree that they're the primary cause of the conflict.
I agree that Muslims see western liberalism as a hostile force. In fact, if you want to know how they feel, just track Pew Research polls throughout time. Consider
this one from 2005. Their conclusion:
That says something not far off from what Osama Bin Laden said. They do not like what the U.S. does in their countries and to their people, and they don't like how it acts like a bully out to get what it can take. However, even then terrorism wasn't popular among the population, and
polls today shows that the vast majority of Muslims despise ISIS.
You'll find this is a continuous, easily-observed pattern. Muslims agree with the complaints of terrorists, but (generally) disagree with the violence.
How, then, do the differences between al-Qaeda and ISIS matter? I feel you are reading too much into the religious doctrine.
Sounds about right.
It wasn't just the shift to the free market, it was
how it was shifted. I'm not an expert here but if I remember correctly, big capital (mines, oil) and banks were made private first. Instead of allowing smaller businesses to have more freedoms, while keeping banks and mines public, to ease the transition, they just divied up the large assets and went forward. As such, you basically had a couple big gangster-like people take control of key industries and make massive profit, and conditions were really poor for average people.
China did a different strategy which worked great for them. But, they didn't have Western powers overseeing the process. I'm really at my limit of knowledge here, though, so there's a possibility I'm wrong. But basically my impression was that, the way westerners wanted to open Russian markets to the world was done in a poor way that was bad for Russia, but good for some oligarchs and western investors. Or, maybe it didn't end up being good for western investors, but that was the intention behind the transition.
That's precisely the point. Russia was in a bad state; there was an opportunity to build an ally and a closer relationship. Instead of helping Russia rebuild and stabilize, my impression is that the western countries basically wanted a puppet leader Yeltsin who would do what westerners wanted, and the ability to exploit Russian resources. I believe that maybe, if we had worked with Russia instead of taking advantage of the situation, then Putin's stance wouldn't be so hostile.
Again, I do agree. Russia has always seen itself as an imperial power, and that historical context works to shape Putin's Russia. I only wonder to what degree you can interpret his actions by this.
To conclude, I think two things: one, that my view isn't as moralistic as you seem to think, and two, that your view is more moral than you seem to think. I do admit that I tend to be strong in moralizing, which might be a fault, but it's how I often want to speak about events. But I disagree that it's how I try to understand them. I hope my post has helped clarify more exactly how I believe the world works.
As for your comment about my views being completely skewed and one-sided, I fail to see how this is true.