Massassi Forums Logo

This is the static archive of the Massassi Forums. The forums are closed indefinitely. Thanks for all the memories!

You can also download Super Old Archived Message Boards from when Massassi first started.

"View" counts are as of the day the forums were archived, and will no longer increase.

ForumsDiscussion Forum → Inauguration Day, Inauguration Hooooooraaay!
123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137138139140141142143144145146147148149150151152153154155156157158159160161162163164165166167168169170171172173174175176177178179180181182183184185186187188189190191192193194195196197198199200201202203204205206207208209210211212213214215216217218219220221222223224225226227228229230231232233234235236237238239240241242243244245246247248249250251252253254255256257258259260261262263264265266267268269270271272273274275276277278279280281282283284285286287288289290291292293294295296297298299300301302303304305306307308309310311312313314315316317318319320321322323324325326327328329330331332333334335336337338339340341342343344345346347348349350351352353354355356357358359360361362363364365366367368369370371372373374375376377378379380381382383384385386387388389390391392393394395396397398399400401
Inauguration Day, Inauguration Hooooooraaay!
2018-01-30, 12:27 PM #7001
Originally posted by Jon`C:
Is this just about the fact that you can't extract rents when your demand is already perfectly inelastic?


The discussion is interesting but yeah this is pretty much it.
2018-01-30, 9:38 PM #7002
I can't take it anymore, too much winning. Making America AND State of the Unions great again! Now let's make nuclear arsenals great again!
"I would rather claim to be an uneducated man than be mal-educated and claim to be otherwise." - Wookie 03:16

2018-01-30, 10:03 PM #7003
Make Donald's Hands Big Again
2018-01-31, 12:11 AM #7004
Hey, so, I don't think we've ever talked about the theory of the firm before. It's important to think about this if you want to understand what's going wrong right now.

Firms - that is, companies with offices sand employees, multinational corporations, and such - are just groups of workers, which seek to maximize their profit under edict from some appointed internal authority. Markets, on the other hand, are unaffiliated agents which seek to maximize their profit by competing against each other. It might be hard to get your head around this, but firms and markets really have the same job; there's nothing a firm can do that a market can't, and vice-versa. A common example of this is subcontracting. Something that happens a lot is a manager/business owner using contract labor to develop a product, and then outsourcing the manufacturing to some established company (usually in China). In this case, the product was never built by a "firm"; it's markets all the way down. Any business can operate this way, no matter the size: a CEO can subcontract managers to subcontract other managers, who subcontract engineers for piecework, and so-forth. It's easier to understand the converse (a monopoly). The point is, you never actually need a firm to get stuff done. Whether you have one firm make all of something, or a bunch of firms, or zero firms, it's a voluntary choice.

It's fairly uncontroversial that competitive markets produce better results in the long run than executive decree, so I won't try very hard to justify it here. Markets have internal competition that push their participants to become more efficient in the long run. Firms don't; they have performance targets (e.g. production quotas) set by management (e.g. Stalin), and if you don't meet those quotas you might be fired (e.g. sent to gulag). It's this market efficiency vs. planning inefficiency tension that underlies the theory of the firm.

The economic question basically goes like this: why firms at all? If markets have better outcomes, what possible advantage is there to having firms?

I believe the simplest and most durable argument concerns transaction costs. If an employer has to go to the market for everything, solicit bids, evaluate bids, select the winner, the process would take a lot of time and cost them a lot of money. It would be more cost effective to simply hire one good person on a permanent basis, rather than hiring temporary contractors for each job. Similarly, if each employee had to compete for every job, they would need to spend a lot of time preparing bids and networking to gain access to future opportunities, in exchange for uncertain work and compensation. This is all a hand-wavy way of saying that firms are a more popular arrangement because employees are cheaper than the superior market outcome would be worth.

But this explanation only goes so far. The argument makes good sense for line jobs, where similar work is on-going, and employers can extract meaningful benefit from the accumulation of human capital in their employees. What about staff jobs, which tend to be more advisory in nature? What about vertical integration, which is very popular among firms, but robs them wholly of the right to solicit competitive bids from downstream suppliers?

Consider, for example, your average corporate IT department. Almost anybody who has worked for a large corporation would agree that they are not well-served by their IT department; tail-wagging-the-dog, explicit policies put in place to make their administrative efforts more efficient at the expense of the line workers who feed them. They behave that way because they have no competition; there is no other IT department threatening to take their IT contract away, so they can do basically anything they want short of gross malfeasance. Almost any company would be better served outsourcing IT services under a firm SLA that emphasizes the needs of line workers, rather than dealing with the inevitable inefficiencies and corruption of an internal IT department. The same argument applies to all other staff departments and positions, from benefits coordination to legal and all the way into senior management. Effectively, vertically integrated firms are paying themselves monopoly rents. Or, rather, they are losing it to various inefficiencies. IIRC, S&P 500 companies now have something like 6-8 staff positions for every line position. That means every worker who contributes to the bottom line has to generate enough revenue to pay for 7 other workers who don't.

It seems obvious to me that there's more to this bloat and incompetence than can be explained through transaction cost aversion alone. And, sure enough, there's been a lot of good economics work in this area. I don't fully understand even the most popular arguments, so I won't try to explain them here. You can look them up yourself. The podcast Eversor linked raised an interesting idea, that firms are stuck in a horizontal/vertical integration arms race against each other, and that's why they keep getting bigger even if it's not otherwise profitable for them to do so. Anyway, I'm only mentioning this stuff to emphasize the fact that, not only is firms vs. markets a choice, firms aren't even an obviously good one.

So again, why firms? Should we have them at all? When we're talking about Amazon becoming the world's first trillion-dollar company, whether Google should be broken up, or stuff like that, these are the kinds of questions we're really asking. If Facebook bought Slack, would it actually make all of their employees more productive, or would it just make both companies' owners richer? These are not the same thing.
2018-02-02, 5:12 PM #7005
Originally posted by Jon`C:
So again, why firms? Should we have them at all? When we're talking about Amazon becoming the world's first trillion-dollar company, whether Google should be broken up, or stuff like that, these are the kinds of questions we're really asking. If Facebook bought Slack, would it actually make all of their employees more productive, or would it just make both companies' owners richer? These are not the same thing.


It's really just that firming up actually eliminates competition, right?
2018-02-02, 5:18 PM #7006
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/01/us/politics/fact-check-democrats-state-of-the-union.html

So someone said "Top C.E.O.s making 300 times the average worker is not right."

NYT responds: "True, but misleading." Because the actual number is 271.

I guess the writers at NYT don't remember what words mean, because that's the exact opposite of true but misleading, it's false but helps you grasp just how wide the disparity is.
2018-02-02, 8:46 PM #7007
Originally posted by Reid:
It's really just that firming up actually eliminates competition, right?


Nobody knows. I do know if you’re going to attribute it to nefariousness, the principal-agent problem is first in line.
2018-02-02, 11:26 PM #7008
Originally posted by Jon`C:
Nobody knows. I do know if you’re going to attribute it to nefariousness, the principal-agent problem is first in line.


Let me give an example of how this might work. Again, this might be hard to understand, because our mental models of market economies are broken.

Vertical integration is a bona fide net gain for the corporation doing it - at least on paper. When a company acquires a vendor, they can get the same services at a lower price; they don't need to negotiate, there is no information asymmetry, the parent company receives the services at cost. It's literally impossible to get the same deal out of an independent vendor. This is great for the parent company. So there's really no question of why firms might choose to do this for their own benefit.

But here's the thing though.

What's good for the parent company doesn't matter. Firms have owners. Actually, to be clear, what firms have are ultimate beneficial owners. Those are the people who ultimately own the parent company, and the people for whose benefit the company is supposed to operate. If Amazon acquires a shipping company, it might be good for Amazon, but it's ****ing horrible for Amazon shareholders. Then the people who own Amazon don't just own Amazon anymore, they're also stuck owning some warty shipping company that doesn't generate any profit and is under no market pressure to deliver packages more efficiently. It'd be much better for the shareholders if Amazon returned that money so the shareholders could buy stock in FedEx or UPS instead. Amazon might pay higher prices for shipping, but the total returns end up being higher.

You can take this argument and drill it all the way down to the individual contributor level.

The idea that corporations are distinct entities with their own personal interests is about as toxic as the idea of tying executive compensation to share prices.
2018-02-03, 2:44 AM #7009
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/02/business/stock-market-interest-rates.html

This is modified, the original version read:

[https://i.imgur.com/4HxdwcN.jpg]
2018-02-03, 3:54 AM #7010
Bitcoin dips below $9000. Who saw this coming?
2018-02-03, 4:04 AM #7011
Originally posted by Reid:


I saw that too. I thought it was ridiculous. The part you highlighted implied that investors were worried because more people would receive higher wages, as if rising wages ("finally") would somehow make the stock market less appealing to investors, because labor and capital were locked in a zero sum game, and workers having more money means that capital has less. But that's not what the article said. The only reason why investors were unsettled by rising wages because they're worried it may lead to inflation and then rising interest rates to combat inflation.

And, I mean, sure, to some extent rising wages does mean capital has less money. If prices for labor is going up, companies generally have to take the incremental cost of that labor out of their profits, which potentially means less money to invest in the stock market (or elsewhere). But the NYT didn't make that argument in the article. And is it really a linear relationship? And is that was spooked investors and spurred a giant sell off? Probably not. It was just click bait.
former entrepreneur
2018-02-03, 4:05 AM #7012
Originally posted by Reid:
Bitcoin dips below $9000. Who saw this coming?


Well.... dipped below $7500, and now its back up to $9000. Even at $7500, Bitcoin is up 7x to 7.5x this time last year.
former entrepreneur
2018-02-03, 4:25 AM #7013
Originally posted by Eversor:
Well.... dipped below $7500, and now its back up to $9000. Even at $7500, Bitcoin is up 7x to 7.5x this time last year.


Still overpriced, even now.
2018-02-03, 4:27 AM #7014
Originally posted by Jon`C:
What's good for the parent company doesn't matter. Firms have owners. Actually, to be clear, what firms have are ultimate beneficial owners. Those are the people who ultimately own the parent company, and the people for whose benefit the company is supposed to operate. If Amazon acquires a shipping company, it might be good for Amazon, but it's ****ing horrible for Amazon shareholders. Then the people who own Amazon don't just own Amazon anymore, they're also stuck owning some warty shipping company that doesn't generate any profit and is under no market pressure to deliver packages more efficiently. It'd be much better for the shareholders if Amazon returned that money so the shareholders could buy stock in FedEx or UPS instead. Amazon might pay higher prices for shipping, but the total returns end up being higher.


For many years, before Amazon became a Wall Street darling, Wall Street stayed away from the stock, because its reported profits were so unimpressive. Wall Street/investors stayed away because, despite the fact Amazon did take in impressive revenue, Bezos would take all profits and invest them into infrastructure. One of the things Bezos is known for is running projects that aren't profitable by bankrolling them with other aspects of his business that are (hence in the Yglesias tweet, "zero-profit health insurance"). And he's also been fairly successful at, eventually, making new aspects of his business profitable, whenever he enters a new horizontal or vertical. It's the reason why owners of grocery store chains panicked when Amazon bought Whole Foods. The business runs on narrow margins, and if Amazon can run Whole Foods without caring whether or not its profitable, it can drive companies who don't have that luxury out of the business.

Which is to say: yeah, several years ago, despite its revenue, many (even most) investors were deterred from buying Amazon stock because of how Bezos runs his business. But the investors who bought Amazon anyway were rewarded handsomely.
former entrepreneur
2018-02-03, 4:41 AM #7015
Originally posted by Reid:
Still overpriced, even now.


Really? Maybe it's undervalued. The decline of its value seems to have more to do with fears about regulation than about widespread recognition that the bubble has burst, and that it's no longer possible to live in a world of delusion where an invisible coin in the sky is worth 16k. (Although I suppose one could say that the fears of regulation are being priced into its market value.)
former entrepreneur
2018-02-03, 4:46 AM #7016
Originally posted by Eversor:
Really? Maybe it's undervalued. The decline of its value seems to have more to do with fears about regulation than about widespread recognition that the bubble has burst, and that it's no longer possible to live in a world of delusion where an invisible coin in the sky is worth 16k. (Although I suppose one could say that the fears of regulation are being priced into its market value.)


My belief is in line with what's said here:

https://tonyarcieri.com/the-tether-conundrum

The price of bitcoin is artificially being pumped up in a large scam. The signs are all there.

Bitcoin exchanges usually makes money off flagrantly violating regulations.
2018-02-03, 4:51 AM #7017
Originally posted by Reid:
My belief is in line with what's said here:

https://tonyarcieri.com/the-tether-conundrum

The price of bitcoin is artificially being pumped up in a large scam. The signs are all there.

Bitcoin exchanges usually makes money off flagrantly violating regulations.


I haven't looked at this closely yet, but I do have to point out that there are *so* many different charts where you have two near identical lines where one is Bitcoin growth/prices and the other is some other thing.

former entrepreneur
2018-02-03, 4:54 AM #7018
Also, this is pretty funny: https://twitter.com/tetherprinter?lang=en
former entrepreneur
2018-02-03, 5:28 AM #7019
Originally posted by Eversor:
I haven't looked at this closely yet, but I do have to point out that there are *so* many different charts where you have two near identical lines where one is Bitcoin growth/prices and the other is some other thing.



Alright, after actually reading the article, it's pretty clear the reason why he put up that chart was to suggest that there isn't necessarily a causal relationship between Tether and Bitcoin. Huh. Okay... pretty weird way to start a piece where the central argument is that there is such a relationship, but, okay.

I don't know. I mean, ok, sure, so Tether prints 450 million USDT without having the USD to back it up. But several weeks ago, that would've been equal to less than .25% of Bitcoins market cap. Now, that's still equal less than .5% of Bitcoin's market cap. That money by itself, printed over the course of a week, isn't enough to increase the value of Bitcoin 4%-7% in a day. Okay, sure, but is it feasible, as the author of this article suggests, that, on some occasions, massive buy orders priced well over the market price have manipulated the price by turning around bearish sentiment in the market? Sure, that does seem possible. But there are so many different things factoring into Bitcoin's price. It doesn't seem like enough to be the singular factor holding up Bitcoin's price Even the author of this article ends with quite a bit of skepticism about how compelling the evidence he brought forward is. And, really, he didn't really say that much: aside from going on at length about how shady Tether is, it's really only the second to last section of the piece ("Tether: The Present") where he talks about the consequences for the price of Bitcoin. I'm not sure any of that lends itself to the kind of "told ya so!" moment a lot of people are waiting for. (And all of the weird references to Trump and his sons doesn't really make his argument any more convincing. But just as there are superficial similarities between Trump-Russia and the cryptomarkets, another thing that both share in common is that critics of Trump and critics of crypto are eagerly awaiting their "told you so!" moment.)

It sounds like Bitfinex is really sketchy and is probably doing stuff that's illegal. And, sure, the price manipulation could matter. But it seems like what's more worrisome than Bitfinex printing Tether to keep Bitcoin afloat is that Bitfinex is printing Tether to keep itself afloat. That reference to Mt. Gox at the end seems appropriate. There's a precedent for the collapse of exchanges to cause a major Bitcoin sell off. So if Tether is being printed to keep Bitfinex solvent, when it eventually catches up with it, it could severely impact the price of Bitcoin. But who knows what would happen? I agree, there could be severe problems. But Bitcoin could shed 20% of its value in a day and then regain 15% the next. Exchanges also get shut down by regulators all the time without much fanfare.
former entrepreneur
2018-02-03, 6:54 AM #7020
Yeah. While Mt. Gox was responsible for 70% of Bitcoin transactions when it collapsed, Bitfinex is only 10% of the current market. When Mt. Gox collapsed, Bitcoin lost approximately 75% of its value.
former entrepreneur
2018-02-03, 8:02 AM #7021
It hardly matters if there is some sort of direct causal relationship between printing of tether and BTC price. The whole crypto space is so circle jerky, small, and unregulated that mantras like this ('just printed tether boys, better get back into BTC') become self fulfilling prophesies because thousands of 14 year olds think they are elite traders with an inside scoop. In reality, they are just people who can't see that everyone is a genius in bull market, and even these recent bitcoin drops don't constitute a bear market unless you bought in at the top right before them, in which case it will only feel bearish.

I hope that Bitcoin stays overpriced and overvalued, because of tether or otherwise, until (I guess if, things look good but it may not work) Ethereum finishes it's Proof of Stake implementation and then hopefully we can be done with the whole Bitcoin dominating this weird world thing. My body is ready for useful applications where I can make money off of using it, and not speculation.
Epstein didn't kill himself.
2018-02-03, 9:30 AM #7022
Originally posted by Eversor:
I don't know. I mean, ok, sure, so Tether prints 450 million USDT without having the USD to back it up. But several weeks ago, that would've been equal to less than .25% of Bitcoins market cap. Now, that's still equal less than .5% of Bitcoin's market cap. That money by itself, printed over the course of a week, isn't enough to increase the value of Bitcoin 4%-7% in a day.
Keep in mind, in order to manipulate prices they wouldn’t need to print a large amount of Tethers relative to Bitcoins total value. They only need to place a small number of irrational buy orders on a single exchange. Speculative bubbles inflate with irrational behaviour; they don’t deflate on exercising an arbitrage opportunity like a rational market should.

^ see also: stock buybacks ^
2018-02-03, 10:57 AM #7023
Hey Jon, on the topic of computers being used for logistics:

https://vimeo.com/235398673

Unfortunately it's on gay ass vimeo so you can't watch it at higher speeds.
Epstein didn't kill himself.
2018-02-03, 11:27 AM #7024


Hmmm. In the future, we'll use the internet for tax fraud..
2018-02-03, 11:31 AM #7025
Originally posted by Jon`C:
Keep in mind, in order to manipulate prices they wouldn’t need to print a large amount of Tethers relative to Bitcoins total value. They only need to place a small number of irrational buy orders on a single exchange. Speculative bubbles inflate with irrational behaviour; they don’t deflate on exercising an arbitrage opportunity like a rational market should.

^ see also: stock buybacks ^


Yeah, this is what I was getting at, although I said it poorly and you said it well. I absolutely agree it's possible something fishy is going on with Tether. But I think a lot of people who are wrapped up in this theory about Tether are hocking a monocausal explanation about why the exuberance and irrationally exists in the first place. Is it possible that Tether was a catalyst that spurred the bull run from 8k to 16k? It's possible, although I don't know whether or not there's any evidence for it either. But either way, it doesn't explain where the irrational exuberance came from the first place. In fact, it seems only to work because the market is irrational. So if Tether has been used for price manipulation, it doesn't mean that the fraud being exposed will be a massive wet blanket on the Bitcoin parade.

Rising interest rates, however..?
former entrepreneur
2018-02-03, 11:34 AM #7026
Originally posted by Eversor:
Yeah, this is what I was getting at, although I said it poorly and you said it well. I absolutely agree it's possible something fishy is going on with Tether. But I think a lot of people who are wrapped up in this theory about Tether are hocking a monocausal explanation about why the exuberance and irrationally exists in the first place. Is it possible that Tether was a catalyst that spurred the bull run from 8k to 16k? It's possible, although I don't know whether or not there's any evidence for it either. But either way, it doesn't explain where the irrational exuberance came from the first place. In fact, it seems only to work because the market is irrational. So if Tether has been used for price manipulation, it doesn't mean that the fraud being exposed will be a massive wet blanket on the Bitcoin parade.

Rising interest rates, however..?


I think Bitfinex controls like 20% of the daily trading volume of Bitcoin. Them being fraudulent would be a pretty dang big deal.
2018-02-03, 12:54 PM #7027
Originally posted by Reid:
I think Bitfinex controls like 20% of the daily trading volume of Bitcoin. Them being fraudulent would be a pretty dang big deal.


The number I saw is 10%, but it wasn't from a particularly authoritative source.

And, to what extent would it be a big deal? I said this before, in case you missed it:

Originally posted by Eversor:
Yeah. While Mt. Gox was responsible for 70% of Bitcoin transactions when it collapsed, Bitfinex is only 10% of the current market. When Mt. Gox collapsed, Bitcoin lost approximately 75% of its value.
former entrepreneur
2018-02-03, 1:08 PM #7028
It's potentially higher than either of us said. According to this site, 25%-30%.

https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/volume/7d?c=e&t=b

Still, Bitcoin trading is much more decentralized than it was when Mt. Gox collapsed.
former entrepreneur
2018-02-03, 1:17 PM #7029
Here's a Hail Mary pass: Jon, you have any idea why there's so much less crime in the US now than in the 70s/80s?
former entrepreneur
2018-02-03, 3:01 PM #7030
Originally posted by Eversor:
Here's a Hail Mary pass: Jon, you have any idea why there's so much less crime in the US now than in the 70s/80s?


For what it's worth, I always tell people the authoritative answer is lack of new lead oxide emissions from gasoline. But that could be a total lie so
I am interested in new bull**** to tell people.
Epstein didn't kill himself.
2018-02-03, 3:47 PM #7031
Originally posted by Eversor:
Here's a Hail Mary pass: Jon, you have any idea why there's so much less crime in the US now than in the 70s/80s?


Seconded, the tetraethyl lead hypothesis is the only decent one I’ve ever heard. Western crime rates are working against economic and demographic changes that have historically correlated with increased crime, not decreased crime.
2018-02-03, 4:37 PM #7032
Wait you mean to tell me it wasn't just Giuliani turning the city around?

Interestingly, that lead contamination in soil becomes an aerosol again during hot weather, in my understanding. I didn't grow up where there was any significant traffic during the leaded years, but inner cities/old rural areas that were previously centers of industry still have high levels of contamination according to my reading. That was about the point when I gave up on the idea of urban farming, though I have heard some interesting things about bio-remediation from some professors I have had that may make me revisit the idea, though differently than most people you hear about doing that.
Epstein didn't kill himself.
2018-02-03, 6:27 PM #7033
Superpredators and their crackpipes
2018-02-03, 7:59 PM #7034
US set to borrow almost $1tn this year
2018-02-03, 8:27 PM #7035
Originally posted by Jon`C:
US set to borrow almost $1tn this year


Thank God we cut taxes to slash the deficit up to $1tn, thanks small government Republicans.
2018-02-03, 8:48 PM #7036
Originally posted by Reid:
Thank God we cut taxes to slash the deficit up to $1tn, thanks small government Republicans.


I don't know what a "fiscal conservative" is, but I'm sure I've never met one.
2018-02-03, 9:16 PM #7037


lol
2018-02-04, 11:16 AM #7038
Originally posted by Reid:
Thank God we cut taxes to slash the deficit up to $1tn, thanks small government Republicans.


Someone should probably start buying Bitcoin now before the US starts printing money to pay off all that debt.
former entrepreneur
2018-02-04, 3:19 PM #7039
Originally posted by Eversor:
Someone should probably start buying Bitcoin now before the US starts printing money to pay off all that debt.


Won’t happen. Inflating yourself out of debt is considered sovereign default and IIRC there are punitive treaty measures that other countries can take if it happens. Also, it’s effectively a progressive tax. That runs contrary to why the US funds its boondoggles with debt instead of tax revenue in the first place.
2018-02-04, 10:41 PM #7040
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=30&v=EzpNjnvrA1Y

Marines: come join us! Get the high score bombing civilians!
123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137138139140141142143144145146147148149150151152153154155156157158159160161162163164165166167168169170171172173174175176177178179180181182183184185186187188189190191192193194195196197198199200201202203204205206207208209210211212213214215216217218219220221222223224225226227228229230231232233234235236237238239240241242243244245246247248249250251252253254255256257258259260261262263264265266267268269270271272273274275276277278279280281282283284285286287288289290291292293294295296297298299300301302303304305306307308309310311312313314315316317318319320321322323324325326327328329330331332333334335336337338339340341342343344345346347348349350351352353354355356357358359360361362363364365366367368369370371372373374375376377378379380381382383384385386387388389390391392393394395396397398399400401

↑ Up to the top!