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ForumsDiscussion Forum → Inauguration Day, Inauguration Hooooooraaay!
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Inauguration Day, Inauguration Hooooooraaay!
2018-07-04, 8:29 AM #9881
Originally posted by Reverend Jones:
What's really weird is that after the rise of Trump, I found myself throwing in with former neoconservatives like David Frum, just as a counterbalance, and perhaps wishful thinking for a return to normalacy. Yet as a Sanders supporter who had previously flirted with the Ron Paul crowd in the past, and absolutely hated Bush as a teenager, well, it felt a little weird at first to be adoring those 'evil neoconservatives'. But I guess that's all over now, with the 'never-Trumper's basically relegated to the ash heap of history.


It's definitely interesting how quickly "principled conservatives" buckled under the tiniest pressure from a pro-Trump party. Suddenly all that waxing brave about morals, standards, whatever ephemeral lofty bull**** conservatives appealed to in order to sound like moral superiors.. vanished! Ain't that a thing.

Originally posted by Reverend Jones:
In retrospect, I'm not sure how comforting it is to think that idiocy and racism are more popular than libertarianism. True, libertarianism was always a fringe movement, while idiocy and racism have been mainstream since the dawn of civilization. ;)

What's really sad is that intelligence probably correlates inversely with libertarian ideology when you look at the higher-percentiles, but on the other hand, the dumbest supporters of all probably don't even know what libertarianism is. At least Ron Paul supporters were semi-literate.

Maybe then the corollary is that when you try to scale a flawed ideology (like libertarianism) up to the masses, the fastest path to growing your base is to say dumber rather than smarter things: intelligent people have already written you off on account of your flawed ideas, but there's plenty of room at the bottom.


For the past five or so years I think I learned that libertarians are Republicans who don't want the branding problems of calling themselves Republicans. Or are atheists and want to smoke pot, but otherwise kinda like the condescending attitude towards social justice or whatever.
2018-07-04, 8:31 AM #9882
Also, last post this morning:

https://np.reddit.com/r/TopMindsOfReddit/comments/8vzyki/q_****ed_up_big_time_tonight_he_posted_a_photo/

Looks like the genius conspiracy theorists figured out Qanon is just a hoax.
2018-07-04, 9:05 AM #9883
Originally posted by Reid:
It's definitely interesting how quickly "principled conservatives" buckled under the tiniest pressure from a pro-Trump party. Suddenly all that waxing brave about morals, standards, whatever ephemeral lofty bull**** conservatives appealed to in order to sound like moral superiors.. vanished! Ain't that a thing.


I mean, would you have voted for Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio had Trump somehow run a successful campaign as a Democrat in 2016? I think the way Republicans think about it is: the Republican party is mortally endangered. If you happen to be someone who cares about the party, at the very least, you're a person who has to make some tough choices.

If the shoe was on the other food, I think Democrats would have had to ask themselves: can we tolerate having this deplorable man as president, if in return we can secure the Supreme Court for a generation?
former entrepreneur
2018-07-04, 9:21 AM #9884
Originally posted by Eversor:
I mean, would you have voted for Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio had Trump somehow run a successful campaign as a Democrat in 2016? I think the way Republicans think about it is: the Republican party is mortally endangered. If you happen to be someone who cares about the party, at the very least, you're a person who has to make some tough choices.


I mean, it's hard to imagine a world where that could have happened. It's pretty clear now Russian money went to far more than just Trump. Mitch McConnell, Marco Rubio and Lindsey Graham are recipients of millions of dollars of Russian money. (Mitch McConnell has also been accused of blocking investigations into this..)

It seems being a crook is endemic in the Republican party in a way that's not there in the Democrat party. The situation you're imagining is thus kind of hard to grasp.

Originally posted by Eversor:
If the shoe was on the other food, I think Democrats would have had to ask themselves: can we tolerate having this deplorable man as president, if in return we can secure the Supreme Court for a generation?


Sounds like you're saying politics is just about people competing for power, and "influencing" whatever power exists for personal gain. I thought you didn't hold that view.

In any case, the context of my understanding would have to be much, much different if the Democrats fielded a person like Trump. Like, I couldn't answer that with the same assumptions, because much of that would have to be different to be in that situation.
2018-07-04, 9:21 AM #9885
Originally posted by Eversor:
I mean, would you have voted for Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio had Trump somehow run a successful campaign as a Democrat in 2016? I think the way Republicans think about it is: the Republican party is mortally endangered. If you happen to be someone who cares about the party, at the very least, you're a person who has to make some tough choices.

If the shoe was on the other food, I think Democrats would have had to ask themselves: can we tolerate having this deplorable man as president, if in return we can secure the Supreme Court for a generation?


You know, writing this, I had to think about why the rise of someone like Trump seems so unlikely in the Democratic party, and, as much as I hate to say it, I did have to think a little bit about civility.

Part of Trump's appeal was that he spoke "the truth": that is, that he didn't refuse to say things because it would be uncouth, or because it violated a sacred cow of decorum in American politics (take, for example, his vocal criticism of the Iraq War and George W. Bush. George W. Bush was unpopular, even among Republicans, but as a Republican candidate, there was a tacit rule that you weren't supposed to criticize a former president from your own party). It seems like this is exactly the sort of thing that the far-left is advocating: pointing out all the hypocrisies, all of the silly and ineffectual half-measure, of the Democratic party, and putting loyalty to a certain agenda (Abolish ICE, single-payer, free college education, etc) above the party. In itself, that isn't bad. Obviously, it shouldn't be bad simply to acknowledge things that are true, and that everyone knows to be true.

However, when suddenly being recognized -- that is, to have it be part of your brand -- as the sort of person who says "this is shibboleth, and I refuse to play along anymore!" becomes a virtue, it also leaves room for a populist to rise up the ranks. It's populist, perhaps not in substance, by aesthetically, or in style. To the extent that a large part of Trump's rise was a matter of style rather than substance, there's something about it that's very Trumpy. You can imagine, for instance, candidate competing over who is "more truthy", and that that could be counter-productive in all sorts of ways (and, even, tear apart the Democratic party).
former entrepreneur
2018-07-04, 9:24 AM #9886
Originally posted by Reid:
Sounds like you're saying politics is just about people competing for power, and "influencing" whatever power exists for personal gain. I thought you didn't hold that view.


i'm against it as a normative conception of politics. That is, I think politics oughtn't be that. But, evidently, it is that.
former entrepreneur
2018-07-04, 9:36 AM #9887
Originally posted by Eversor:
i'm against it as a normative conception of politics. That is, I think politics oughtn't be that. But, evidently, it is that.


What does this mean substantially? I'm opposed to actions that intensify transforming politics (as they are in fact, not as an idea) into a naked struggle for power. That is, I'm against trying to win by rigging the system in your favor, by altering the rules so that your opponents are in capable of challenging you. But now it looks like even by voting for the Democrats in 2018/2020, I'll be voting for a party that is explicit that that is its goal. Oh well. I'm sure I'll get a good ribbing for disagreeing.
former entrepreneur
2018-07-04, 9:39 AM #9888
Originally posted by Eversor:
i'm against it as a normative conception of politics. That is, I think politics oughtn't be that. But, evidently, it is that.


Well I think we're in agreement there, I just think that you can't act on an ideal like that when your political opponents aren't. I mean, I'm no expert in game theory, it just seems that once one agent starts violating the rules, they gain a strict advantage.
2018-07-04, 9:40 AM #9889
Originally posted by Eversor:
What does this mean substantially? I'm opposed to actions that intensify transforming politics (as they are in fact, not as an idea) into a naked struggle for power. That is, I'm against trying to win by rigging the system in your favor, by altering the rules so that your opponents are in capable of challenging you. But now it looks like even by voting for the Democrats in 2018/2020, I'll be voting for a party that is explicit that that is its goal. Oh well. I'm sure I'll get a good ribbing for disagreeing.


Well, I agree, I don't want like assassinations or an all-out power struggle. That would lead us to civil war.
2018-07-04, 9:44 AM #9890
Like, is it completely unimaginable that a Democratic candidate in 2020 would run an anti-establishment campaign by tying together accusing Bill Clinton of being a rapist with criticism of Clintonite/Neoliberal economic policies from the 90s? Are there people here who think that Democratic candidates should do that? Without a doubt, some Democrats would welcome it as a politician finally saying what politicians are generally too guarded and cowardly to say themselves: that is, they'd countenance it as "truth-telling" (or something like that). It probably won't even seem that radical by 2020.
former entrepreneur
2018-07-04, 9:45 AM #9891
Originally posted by Reid:
Well, I agree, I don't want like assassinations or an all-out power struggle. That would lead us to civil war.


Or packing the court? Or dividing California up into multiple states? Or admitting Puerto Rico as a state?
former entrepreneur
2018-07-04, 9:50 AM #9892
Originally posted by Reid:
Well I think we're in agreement there, I just think that you can't act on an ideal like that when your political opponents aren't. I mean, I'm no expert in game theory, it just seems that once one agent starts violating the rules, they gain a strict advantage.


I don't disagree with that either. But that, as I said over and over again, is why I'm fatalistic about politics. It seems that the same forces that are driving the Republicans to rig the system are also driving the Democrats to do it too. Both sides think the other is trying to gain a decisive advantage against the other, which only strengthens the need to rig the system. If these trends continue indefinitely, the outcome will be increasingly intensifying conflict that will eventually lead to some kind of ruin.
former entrepreneur
2018-07-04, 10:31 AM #9893
https://www.reddit.com/r/AskEconomics/comments/8vxgsq/it_seems_that_the_united_states_government_from/e1r7dwj

Nice post regarding right-wing historical revisionism of the constitution.
2018-07-04, 10:41 AM #9894
Is Trump anxious to have his own war, now that North Korea has toned it down?

Originally posted by A.P.:
BOGOTA, Colombia (AP) — As a meeting last August in the Oval Office to discuss sanctions on Venezuela was concluding, President Donald Trump turned to his top aides and asked an unsettling question: With a fast unraveling Venezuela threatening regional security, why can’t the U.S. just simply invade the troubled country?

The suggestion stunned those present at the meeting, including U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and national security adviser H.R. McMaster, both of whom have since left the administration. This account of the previously undisclosed conversation comes from a senior administration official familiar with what was said.

In an exchange that lasted around five minutes, McMaster and others took turns explaining to Trump how military action could backfire and risk losing hard-won support among Latin American governments to punish President Nicolas Maduro for taking Venezuela down the path of dictatorship, according to the official. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the discussions.

But Trump pushed back. Although he gave no indication he was about to order up military plans, he pointed to what he considered past cases of successful gunboat diplomacy in the region, according to the official, like the invasions of Panama and Grenada in the 1980s.

The idea, despite his aides’ best attempts to shoot it down, would nonetheless persist in the president’s head.

The next day, Aug. 11, Trump alarmed friends and foes alike with talk of a “military option” to remove Maduro from power. The public remarks were initially dismissed in U.S. policy circles as the sort of martial bluster people have come to expect from the reality TV star turned commander in chief.

But shortly afterward, he raised the issue with Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos, according to the U.S. official. Two high-ranking Colombian officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to avoid antagonizing Trump confirmed the report.

Then in September, on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly, Trump discussed it again, this time at greater length, in a private dinner with leaders from four Latin American allies that included Santos, the same three people said and Politico reported in February.

The U.S. official said Trump was specifically briefed not to raise the issue and told it wouldn’t play well, but the first thing the president said at the dinner was, “My staff told me not to say this.” Trump then went around asking each leader if they were sure they didn’t want a military solution, according to the official, who added that each leader told Trump in clear terms they were sure.

Eventually, McMaster would pull aside the president and walk him through the dangers of an invasion, the official said.

Taken together, the behind-the-scenes talks, the extent and details of which have not been previously reported, highlight how Venezuela’s political and economic crisis has received top attention under Trump in a way that was unimaginable in the Obama administration. But critics say it also underscores how his “America First” foreign policy at times can seem outright reckless, providing ammunition to America’s adversaries.

The White House declined to comment on the private conversations. But a National Security Council spokesman reiterated that the U.S. will consider all options at its disposal to help restore Venezuela’s democracy and bring stability. Under Trump’s leadership, the U.S., Canada and European Union have levied sanctions on dozens of top Venezuelan officials, including Maduro himself, over allegations of corruption, drug trafficking and human rights abuses. The U.S. has also distributed more than $30 million to help Venezuela’s neighbors absorb an influx of more than 1 million migrants who have fled the country.

For Maduro, who has long claimed that the U.S. has military designs on Venezuela and its vast oil reserves, Trump’s bellicose talk provided the unpopular leader with an immediate if short-lived boost as he was trying to escape blame for widespread food shortages and hyperinflation. Within days of the president’s talk of a military option, Maduro filled the streets of Caracas with loyalists to condemn “Emperor” Trump’s belligerence, ordered up nationwide military exercises and threatened with arrest opponents he said were plotting his overthrow with the U.S.

“Mind your own business and solve your own problems, Mr. Trump!” thundered Nicolas Maduro, the president’s son, at the government-stacked constituent assembly. “If Venezuela were attacked, the rifles will arrive in New York, Mr. Trump,” the younger Maduro said. “We will take the White House.”

Even some of the staunchest U.S. allies were begrudgingly forced to side with Maduro in condemning Trump’s saber rattling. Santos, a big backer of U.S. attempts to isolate Maduro, said an invasion would have zero support in the region. The Mercosur trade bloc, which includes Brazil and Argentina, issued a statement saying “the only acceptable means of promoting democracy are dialogue and diplomacy” and repudiating “any option that implies the use of force.”

But among Venezuela’s beleaguered opposition movement, hostility to the idea of a military intervention has slowly eased.

A few weeks after Trump’s public comments, Harvard economics professor Ricardo Hausmann, a former Venezuelan planning minister, wrote a syndicated column titled “D Day Venezuela,” in which he called for a “coalition of the willing” made up of regional powers and the U.S. to step in and support militarily a government appointed by the opposition-led national assembly.

Mark Feierstein, who oversaw Latin America on the National Security Council during the Obama administration, said that strident U.S. action on Venezuela, however commendable, won’t loosen Maduro’s grip on power if it’s not accompanied by pressure from the streets. However, he thinks Venezuelans have largely been demoralized after a crackdown on protests last year triggered dozens of deaths, and the threat of more repression has forced dozens of opposition leaders into exile.

“People inside and outside the administration know they can ignore plenty of what Trump says,” Feierstein, who is now a senior adviser at the Albright Stonebridge Group, said of Trump’s talk of military invasion of Venezuela. “The concern is that it raised expectations among Venezuelans, many of whom are waiting for an external actor to save them.”

___

Associated Press writer Jill Colvin in Washington contributed to this report.


https://apnews.com/a3309c4990ac4581834d4a654f7746ef
2018-07-04, 10:48 AM #9895
Originally posted by Reverend Jones:
Is Trump anxious to have his own war


Fascists* idolize war: yes.

*Here I just mean Trump happens to act alot like fascists have does things in that sort of style, not that he's an explicit, self-aware pro-fascist guy.
2018-07-04, 1:43 PM #9896
Originally posted by Reid:
Fascists* idolize war: yes.

*Here I just mean Trump happens to act alot like fascists have does things in that sort of style, not that he's an explicit, self-aware pro-fascist guy.


"He's a fascist, but not in his heart."
former entrepreneur
2018-07-04, 1:49 PM #9897
Originally posted by Reid:
Fascists* idolize war: yes.

*Here I just mean Trump happens to act alot like fascists have does things in that sort of style, not that he's an explicit, self-aware pro-fascist guy.


He's an explicit, self-aware pro-fascist guy.
2018-07-04, 1:58 PM #9898
Before someone says something like "prove it", or Googles for some list of fascist policies that Trump isn't doing (yet), or some horseshoe theory bull****, I'll remind everyone that the only consistent expression of fascism is the authoritarian populism of precarious businessmen. So, yeah, Trump is a fascist. The US has had fascist tendencies since before the ideology was given a name, Donald Trump was raised in a pro-fascist environment and is expressing those desires through policy. It's literally fascism.

That doesn't mean he's gonna start putting people in ovens (although it looks more likely every day). It also doesn't mean he's likely to seize power (even though the people who voted for him support suspending democracy if Daddy Trump says so). It doesn't mean it will be as acute as German or Italian fascism, but he's absolutely, totally a fascist.
2018-07-04, 2:07 PM #9899
What if I still said "prove it," despite your preemption?
former entrepreneur
2018-07-04, 2:12 PM #9900
Originally posted by Eversor:
What if I still said "prove it," despite your preemption?


I'd refer you to previous posts in this thread where I explained (with citations) that fascism was an anti-democratic unprincipled opportunist non-ideology, governance by whim and patronage.

Then, after reading those, I would refer you to the news.
2018-07-04, 2:28 PM #9901
better than inculcating schoolchildren into the ways of Obamunism

2018-07-04, 2:38 PM #9902
Originally posted by Jon`C:
I'd refer you to previous posts in this thread where I explained (with citations) that fascism was an anti-democratic unprincipled opportunist non-ideology, governance by whim and patronage.

Then, after reading those, I would refer you to the news.


I was joking around, but I remember many of your points from those earlier conversations we had. I don't feel a particularly strong need to revisit them.
former entrepreneur
2018-07-04, 9:12 PM #9903
Originally posted by Jon`C:
He's an explicit, self-aware pro-fascist guy.


Yeah I guess he kinda is. We are ****ed.
2018-07-04, 9:55 PM #9904
https://old.reddit.com/r/badeconomics/comments/8q4ugy/productivity_wagegap_causes_suicide_because_both/e0jm2bc/

Damn. Now this is the kind of comment Reddit is worth reading for. (Well, if you're an economics nerd.. I guess maybe even they may not find it as interesting as I).

It kind of makes sense as to why economists can look you in the eye and say some of the dumbest **** imaginable. All it takes is you literally just talking to enough people on the street to realize everybody hates the economic conditions of America. But economists will still look you in the eye and say everybody in America is actually doing fine because wages match productivity.

It's because economics pretends to be a real science so hard it neglects that it is itself half a sociology discipline. Operationalizing variables and dealing with icky language is hard, why not just use easily quantifiable variables, pretend it has infinite explanatory power and insult people who question the model?

The rest of the thread is an interesting read, too. The main post is basically a guy poopooing a graphic for spuriously correlating suicide with employment conditions, with the typical freshman's cry of "correlation and causation! ooh im a brilliant one", lack of any response to the truth value of the claim itself, and typical economist "tell unhappy people to their face that they aren't unhappy because their model can't make sense of it" bull****.

But, there's a nice counter-comment going into incredible depth about how, like, employment is one of the most critical factors in why people commit suicide. Led to this discussio of the limts of traditional economics.

People are ****ing complicated, yall. Economists should start admitting they know very little about how macroeconomic trends are affecting people.

Oh, a recent panel study did confirm the decline in wages is real and NOT just caused by increasing insurance costs so, congratulations economics on finally producing relevant results.
2018-07-04, 10:47 PM #9905
Leon Trotsky: "Economics = overfitting to the training data"

2018-07-04, 10:49 PM #9906
They're just questions, Leon.
2018-07-04, 11:13 PM #9907
It's helpful to note that

"productivity" = GDP divided by the employment rate
GDP = household incomes + corporate profits

so

1.) saying that wages match productivity is circular in the best of times.

2.) there are several ways for productivity growth to equal household income growth, and only one of them is actually good for the people who depend on income.

3.) a small application of algebra and you, too, will fly the black flag.
2018-07-04, 11:48 PM #9908
Originally posted by Reverend Jones:
Leon Trotsky: "Economics = overfitting to the training data"



Was that a Tim and Eric bit? lol
former entrepreneur
2018-07-05, 12:11 AM #9909
lmao, now that you mention it...
2018-07-05, 3:05 AM #9910


woah
former entrepreneur
2018-07-05, 3:06 AM #9911
martin sheen is in it so i'm pretty sure this *is* actually a tim and eric bit
former entrepreneur
2018-07-05, 6:48 AM #9912
Originally posted by Reverend Jones:
Leon Trotsky: "Economics = overfitting to the training data"



I'm trying to watch this and take it seriously but the shots going back and forth between those hairstyles is making me giggle
2018-07-05, 7:00 AM #9913
[https://i.redd.it/xggfzkaow1811.jpg]
2018-07-05, 8:09 AM #9914
Originally posted by Jon`C:
It's helpful to note that

"productivity" = GDP divided by the employment rate
GDP = household incomes + corporate profits

so

1.) saying that wages match productivity is circular in the best of times.

2.) there are several ways for productivity growth to equal household income growth, and only one of them is actually good for the people who depend on income.

3.) a small application of algebra and you, too, will fly the black flag.


Is it just corporate profits or total income?
2018-07-05, 8:16 AM #9915
[https://i.redd.it/2itsie7gz3811.jpg]

When you brag about being an author then your ghostwriter says you can't even read.
2018-07-05, 10:09 AM #9916
Originally posted by Eversor:


woah


In contrast to Morono, here's a bit of history on U.S. manufacturing:

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-03-05/steel-history-shows-how-america-lost-ground-to-europe

People who project failings onto a foreign agent are scary, yo.
2018-07-05, 11:03 AM #9917
Reid have you had any more thoughts about the contemporary relevance of breaking bad?
former entrepreneur
2018-07-05, 11:53 AM #9918
https://twitter.com/CardiffGarcia/status/1014944737978175488
former entrepreneur
2018-07-05, 12:22 PM #9919
Originally posted by Reid:
In contrast to Morono, here's a bit of history on U.S. manufacturing:

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-03-05/steel-history-shows-how-america-lost-ground-to-europe

People who project failings onto a foreign agent are scary, yo.


Didn’t watch the video to see if it covers this, but it’s not totally unreasonable to blame China for some of it. China, if modelled as a single corporation operating in a liberal state (as it should be), would be an anticompetitive monopolist.

I think I said this earlier in this thread, but here’s an example.

China dumped rare earth metals in order to drive non-Chinese suppliers out of business. A normal monopolist would keep supply steady, but hike prices in order to cash in. China didn’t do this; after cornering the market by dumping, they then reduced their export quotas. This constrained the production of non-Chinese goods that used rare earths as inputs, like motors and electronic components, which in turn forced consumers of those parts to become more reliant on Chinese supplies.

The Chinese industrial economy isn’t something run for the benefit of the Chinese people, it’s basically a weapon being used to destroy foreign economies and eventually Finlandize us.


That said, none of this would be possible without the unprincipled opportunism of our businesses and governments. If we had applied countervailing tariffs to Chinese exports back in the 1980s to reflect the cultural values we place on competitive markets, labor rights, and environmental protection, rather than allowing irredeemable psychopaths like GE to treasonously exploit a bottomless arbitrage opportunity engineered to eventually destroy themselves.
2018-07-05, 12:28 PM #9920
Originally posted by Eversor:
Reid have you had any more thoughts about the contemporary relevance of breaking bad?


Nothing in particular. Most of the show is pretty straightforward.
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